Ohio State finally finished a fourth-quarter road fight, ended Indiana’s 22-game winning streak and climbed to No. 3 in the country. The Buckeyes entered the open week with their best win of the season—and a new reality after Julian Sayin’s throwing-arm injury.
Last week’s Monday Musings predicted Ohio State would beat Indiana 27–23. The actual game produced eight fewer points for each team, but the four-point margin—and, more importantly, the Buckeyes on the correct side of it—proved accurate. Ohio State walked out of Bloomington with a 19–15 victory that will matter on every résumé graphic shown in November and December.
It was the kind of win this team had not yet earned. The Buckeyes led Texas by 20 points in the fourth quarter and lost. They controlled Iowa, but never faced a final possession with the game hanging in the balance. Against Indiana, they had to protect a four-point lead after the defending national champions crossed midfield, while their starting quarterback stood on the sideline with his right arm in a sling.
Ohio State found a way. Indiana did not.
That deserves to be celebrated before the conversation turns to everything that changed when Julian Sayin absorbed a hit with just over eight minutes remaining. Ryan Day said afterward that Sayin will “probably be out for several weeks,” placing the offense in Luke Fahey’s hands as the Buckeyes prepare for a Halloween trip to No. 16 USC. The open week could not have arrived at a more valuable time, but time alone will not solve what Ohio State must now rebuild.
Here are six Monday Musings after the Buckeyes’ biggest victory—and most consequential injury—of the season.
1. Ohio State Finally Won the Fourth Quarter That Texas Took Away
The season’s first defining image was Texas driving 73 yards for the winning touchdown with 25 seconds remaining. Ohio State had spent three quarters proving it could compete with an elite opponent and one quarter proving that being in position to win is not the same as finishing.
Bloomington supplied the answer.
Ohio State entered the fourth quarter ahead 13–7, then converted fourth-and-one by taking a shot rather than merely trying to survive. Sayin found Jeremiah Smith for a 38-yard touchdown, and although the two-point conversion failed, the Buckeyes had created the margin that ultimately won the game. Indiana answered immediately with a 75-yard touchdown drive and successful conversion, cutting the lead to 19–15 with 10:30 remaining.
Everything after that required the poise Ohio State lacked in Austin, although the finish was far less tidy than the final score will remember. Sayin was injured on the Buckeyes’ next possession, forcing Fahey into the game, but Ohio State still used more than five minutes before Joe McGuire pinned Indiana at its own 6-yard line. The defense forced a quick punt, only for the offense to lose 14 yards and give the Hoosiers one final opportunity with 3:06 remaining.
Indiana drove to the Ohio State 27 and faced fourth-and-four with 1:07 left. Hoover recognized Ohio State’s pressure and found Nick Marsh open near the left side of the end zone for what initially looked like the winning touchdown. Marsh made the catch, but his left foot came down on the boundary before he completed it. The pass was ruled incomplete, Ohio State took over on downs with 1:02 remaining, and Fahey ended the game with two kneel-downs.
It was not a clean defensive finish; the Buckeyes’ pressure did not prevent Marsh from getting behind the coverage, and Ohio State needed the boundary to erase Indiana’s best chance. But unlike the ending in Austin, the Buckeyes survived the decisive possession and left the field with the win.
That does not erase Texas, but it changes what Ohio State knows about itself. Day said after the game that this team is becoming more comfortable in the fourth quarter and more connected through difficult experiences. That can sound like coach-speak until a defense has to protect a four-point lead twice after the starting quarterback leaves. Then it becomes evidence.
Ohio State did not simply win a top-five game. It won the exact kind of game that had been missing from this team’s identity.
2. The Defense Has Become Ohio State’s Most Reliable Championship Trait
Indiana gained 369 yards, including 296 through the air, so this was not another statistical suffocation like Maryland’s 146-yard afternoon. It was a more valuable type of defensive success because it came against an offense capable of creating pressure from multiple directions and because the Buckeyes repeatedly won when the field shortened.
Indiana rushed for only 73 yards on 29 attempts, an average of 2.5 yards per carry. Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. combined for 70 yards on 25 attempts, never producing a run longer than seven yards. The Hoosiers entered Ohio State territory often enough to threaten, but finished 0-for-2 on fourth down, missed both field-goal attempts and scored on only two of three red-zone possessions. The official game book shows a defense that bent between the 20s but kept the scoreboard under control.
The turnovers were even more meaningful. Timmons, back after missing the previous two games, forced Indiana’s first offensive fumble in 1,473 snaps when he knocked the ball loose from Davion Chandler early in the third quarter. Earl Little Jr. recovered it, setting up a Connor Hawkins field goal. On Indiana’s next possession, Jaylen McClain sacked Hoover on fourth down and forced another fumble, which T.J. Alford recovered. Because Sayin threw two interceptions, the teams finished even in turnovers, but Ohio State’s two takeaways prevented those mistakes from deciding the result.
There are still details Patricia will want corrected. Becker caught nine passes for 165 yards, repeatedly finding space against a secondary that had erased Maryland’s Chris Durr Jr. one week earlier. Hoover completed only half of his 40 attempts, but Indiana still created four completions of at least 19 yards. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava and Lincoln Riley will study every one of those snaps.
The larger conclusion remains positive. Ohio State has held five consecutive opponents below 20 points. After the defensive breakdown against Illinois raised questions about the front, the Buckeyes have allowed 16 points or fewer in three straight games and surrendered only 194 combined rushing yards across Iowa, Maryland and Indiana. The defense can win with dominance, and now it has shown it can win with resilience.
With Sayin unavailable, that trait becomes the foundation of the season rather than one of its strengths.
3. Julian Sayin Delivered the Game’s Biggest Play Before the Season Changed
Sayin’s performance was complicated even before the injury. He completed 15 of 29 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw two interceptions and took three sacks. His first interception gave Indiana the ball at the Ohio State 7 and became the Hoosiers’ first touchdown eight seconds later. His second ended a promising possession near midfield late in the first half.
The mistakes were precisely what last week’s Musings warned Indiana would try to create. The Hoosiers entered the game with a 30-game streak of tying or winning the turnover battle and a pass rush built to make a young quarterback impatient. Ohio State’s passing game never found an easy rhythm, and the offense converted only 6 of 15 third downs.
Sayin still made two championship-caliber throws. The first came with seven seconds left before halftime, when he found Bo Jackson for a two-yard touchdown that turned a 7–3 deficit into a 10–7 lead. The second came on fourth-and-one in the fourth quarter. Indiana sold out to stop the run; Sayin trusted Smith downfield; Smith made the contested catch and stayed inbounds for the 38-yard score.
That was the aggressive answer Ohio State needed. The Buckeyes had struggled to finish drives, settled for two short field goals and produced only 78 rushing yards. On the game’s most important offensive snap, Arthur Smith and Day refused to play for field position. Sayin rewarded the decision.
Then, two possessions later, Indiana defensive lineman Mario Landino drove into Sayin’s right arm as the quarterback attempted to throw. Sayin fumbled, Phillip Daniels recovered, and the quarterback left the field with his arm hanging at his side. He returned to the sideline in a sling. Day did not disclose a diagnosis, but confirmed Sayin is expected to miss several weeks. The postgame injury report also notes that Sayin has thrown for 2,007 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions this season.
That timeline makes a return at USC unlikely and potentially places the Oregon game on Nov. 7 in question. Ohio State should not rush him back to satisfy the calendar. Throwing-arm health is not an injury to manage through guesswork, and the Buckeyes’ championship goals extend beyond the next two Saturdays.
Sayin helped deliver the win Ohio State needed. The next phase is protecting his recovery while building an offense that can survive without him.
4. Luke Fahey Does Not Need to Become Julian Sayin in Two Weeks
Fahey’s box-score line at Indiana was 0-for-2 with one sack. That is not enough work to draw a meaningful conclusion, especially considering the situation he inherited. He entered cold in a top-five road game, with Ohio State leading by four and Indiana’s crowd recognizing that every passing down had changed. Day said afterward that the moment was not too big for him, and Smith told Fahey on the sideline that the offensive line, receivers and backs were behind him.
The more useful evidence comes from the season as a whole. Fahey is 9-for-13 for 203 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in limited action. The efficiency and explosiveness are encouraging; the interception rate is a reminder that relief appearances against decided opponents do not replicate a full game plan against a ranked team.
Ohio State now has an open week to make that transition as orderly as possible. Arthur Smith’s task is not to hand Fahey Sayin’s playbook and ask him to imitate the starter. It is to identify the throws Fahey processes best, rebuild protections around those concepts and pair them with a rushing plan that prevents USC from attacking every third down. Expect more defined reads, more movement, more help from tight ends and backs and a deliberate attempt to create early completions.
The players around Fahey also have to absorb some of the responsibility. Daniels returned at right tackle against Indiana, but Austin Siereveld and Ja’Kobi Jackson remained out. Ohio State allowed four sacks, including the one charged to Fahey, and the backs found little room against Indiana’s front. Luke Montgomery said the experienced linemen must lead and take some of the third-down burden off the new quarterback. That cannot be a slogan during the open week. It has to become the plan.
Fahey has Smith, an improving group of young receivers, two productive tight ends and a defense capable of controlling games. He does not need to produce 300 yards or win a Heisman audition. He needs to protect the football, convert manageable downs and allow Ohio State’s best units to carry their share.
The Buckeyes’ ceiling is lower without Sayin. Their standard does not have to be.
5. The Running Game’s Maryland Progress Did Not Travel to Bloomington
One week after Ohio State rushed for 207 yards and ended the Maryland game with a 9:59 touchdown drive, Indiana held the Buckeyes to 78 yards on 37 attempts. The raw average was only 2.1 yards per carry, though the four sacks accounted for 44 lost yards and made the team total look worse than the running backs’ actual production.
Even with that context, Ohio State did not run well enough. Bo Jackson carried 18 times for 56 yards, an average of 3.1, and his longest run gained 12. Isaiah West provided the most encouraging changeup with 45 yards on six attempts, including a 22-yard run. But Ja’Kobi’s absence removed part of the rotation that had helped Ohio State stay efficient against Iowa and Maryland, and the offensive line struggled to create movement against a defense that leads the country in games holding opponents below 100 rushing yards since the start of 2024.
The Buckeyes still found situational answers. They converted both fourth-down attempts, possessed the ball for 32:12 and completed a 15-play, 80-yard touchdown drive before halftime. Yet the inability to create consistent early-down rushing success contributed to the 6-of-15 third-down line and exposed Sayin to the pressure that eventually changed the game.
That connection is more important now. With Fahey likely starting at USC, every negative run becomes an invitation for Riley’s defense to disguise pressure and force a backup quarterback to solve the game after the snap. Ohio State cannot manufacture a safer offense merely by calling more runs; it must block those runs well enough to keep the full playbook open.
USC has allowed 111 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per attempt through seven games. Those numbers suggest opportunity, but the Trojans have two weeks of football before the matchup—an open date this past Saturday and a trip to Wisconsin on Oct. 24. Ohio State’s open week should be used to restore Ja’Kobi and Siereveld if possible, clarify the best five-man line and create a run package Fahey can trust.
The Maryland performance showed the run game’s potential. Indiana reminded us it is not yet opponent-proof.
6. Ohio State’s Playoff Position Improved Even as Its Margin for Error Changed
The Buckeyes rose to No. 3 in the new AP poll and No. 2 in the Coaches Poll. Indiana fell only to No. 6, which reflects how the country viewed Saturday: a close loss by a defending champion to another elite team, not a result that diminished either program. Iowa is No. 15 and USC is No. 16, giving Ohio State two ranked road wins and another ranked road opportunity on the horizon.
The national chaos strengthened the résumé. Five of the top seven teams lost, including Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Alabama and Texas. Texas dropped to No. 19 after its second loss, which weakens the value of Ohio State’s one-point defeat in Austin, but beating Indiana on the road more than fills the top-line résumé need. The Buckeyes are 6–1 overall, 4–0 in the Big Ten and now own the victory that ended Indiana’s 22-game winning streak. The October 18 AP poll places Ohio State behind only Miami and BYU.
Nothing about Sayin’s injury changes what Ohio State has already earned. It does change how the selection committee may view the Buckeyes if the offense struggles without him, and it changes the practical difficulty of navigating a second half that still includes USC, Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan.
The Big Ten path remains in Ohio State’s control. The Indiana win gave the Buckeyes a direct tiebreaker over one of the conference’s strongest contenders. USC is 3–1 in league play, while undefeated UCLA remains another factor even though it does not appear on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. Every week of survival strengthens the possibility of reaching Indianapolis.
The playoff conversation, however, should remain secondary during the open week. Ohio State does not need to build hypothetical brackets around a healthy Sayin, an injured Sayin or a potential return date. It needs to prepare Fahey, repair the protection and let one of the country’s best defenses carry the appropriate amount of weight.
The résumé says Ohio State is a top-three team. The next month will determine whether the roster can continue playing like one under changed circumstances.
What I’ll Be Watching During the Open Week
Any concrete update on Sayin. “Several weeks” is the only confirmed public timeline. Until Ohio State supplies more detail, projecting a specific return date would be speculation. The important markers are whether he avoids surgery, when he can resume throwing and whether the staff treats Oregon as realistic or premature.
How the offense is rebuilt around Fahey. The open week should reveal which concepts Arthur Smith trusts, how much mobility will be incorporated and whether the Buckeyes can create defined throws without becoming predictable.
The health of the offensive supporting cast. Siereveld and Ja’Kobi Jackson missed Indiana, while Daniels, Inniss, McCuin, Alliegro and Timmons returned from the Maryland absence list. Getting the line and backfield closer to full strength would be the best way to protect a new starter.
USC at Wisconsin on Oct. 24. The Trojans are averaging 36.4 points and 462.4 yards per game, while Maiava has completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. Wisconsin will provide the freshest look at how USC handles a physical defense and whether its own weaknesses have changed.
Ohio State’s coverage answers. Becker’s 165-yard game was the one clear defensive warning from Bloomington. USC averages 310 passing yards per game and gains more than nine yards per attempt, so communication in the secondary will be as important as Fahey’s development.
Very Early USC Prediction
This prediction has to carry more uncertainty than usual. USC plays Wisconsin before Ohio State arrives in Los Angeles, kickoff and television details have not been announced, and the Buckeyes have only begun constructing a plan without Sayin. The Trojans are 6–1 and possess the type of passing offense that can test Ohio State more consistently than Indiana did.
Ohio State still owns the more trustworthy defense. USC is allowing 25.1 points and 350 yards per game, while the Buckeyes have held three consecutive opponents to 16 points or fewer. If Fahey avoids the short-field turnover, Ohio State can keep the game inside the low-20s and lean on its defense, field position and Smith’s ability to change one possession.
The open week should help more than the cross-country trip hurts. For now, the Buckeyes remain a narrow choice—but this forecast should be revisited after USC plays Wisconsin and Ohio State provides more information about its quarterback plan.
Early prediction: Ohio State 23, USC 20
Next Game Information
● Matchup: No. 3 Ohio State (6–1, 4–0 Big Ten) at No. 16 USC (6–1, 3–1 Big Ten)
● Date: Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026
● Location: United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
● Kickoff: To be announced
● Television: To be announced
● Before then: USC visits Wisconsin at 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Oct. 24, on NBC; Ohio State has an open date
● Series: USC leads 13–10–1; Ohio State won the most recent meeting 24–7 in the 2017 Cotton Bowl
The schools’ official game pages list the Oct. 31 matchup but do not yet list a kickoff time or network. This will be Ohio State’s first trip to the Coliseum since 2008 and the first meeting between the programs as Big Ten opponents.
The Bottom Line
Ohio State went to Bloomington needing proof that it could win the fourth quarter against an elite opponent. It came home with that proof, a top-three ranking and a victory over the team that took its conference championship ten months earlier.
It also came home without the quarterback who made the game’s boldest offensive play.
Both truths belong in the evaluation. The defense is championship-caliber. Smith continues to turn high-leverage moments into history. The Buckeyes are more composed, more connected and more capable of finishing than they were in Austin. They also rushed for 78 yards, allowed four sacks, threw two interceptions and now must prepare a backup quarterback for a ranked road game in Los Angeles.
The open week is not a pause in the season. It is the most important developmental week Ohio State has had all year. The Buckeyes have already proven they can win with Sayin. Their championship future may depend on what they learn to do without him.
Photo Credit: Adam Cairns/The Columbus Dispatch