Ohio State moved to No. 2 during its open week, USC stumbled badly at Wisconsin and the path ahead appeared to open a little wider. None of it changes the question that will define the Buckeyes’ Halloween trip to Los Angeles: What does a championship contender look like when its starting quarterback is suddenly unavailable?
Ohio State did not take a snap Saturday, yet almost everything around the Buckeyes changed.
No. 2 BYU lost in double overtime at UCF. Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Houston, Tennessee and Iowa also fell, adding another layer of disorder to a season that has spent most of October reminding everyone how quickly a résumé can change. By Sunday afternoon, Ohio State had climbed from No. 3 to No. 2 in the Associated Press poll without leaving Columbus.
The most relevant result, however, came in Madison. USC entered its game at Wisconsin ranked No. 16 and carrying the look of Ohio State’s next major road test. The Trojans left Camp Randall with a 24–7 loss, two Jayden Maiava interceptions, minus-17 rushing yards and even more questions than the Buckeyes carried into their open week.
That should make Ohio State the favorite Saturday night. It should not make the assignment comfortable.
Julian Sayin is out indefinitely after injuring his throwing arm at Indiana, and Ryan Day has said the Buckeyes are preparing for the possibility that he will not return this season. Luke Fahey entered the open week ahead of Tavien St. Clair, but both quarterbacks were set to receive meaningful repetitions before the staff decided who would take the first snap at the Coliseum. Ohio State may be ranked higher than it was seven days ago, but the offense that earned that ranking must now be rebuilt around someone new.
Here are six Monday Musings as No. 2 Ohio State prepares to return to the field against USC.
1. The Open Week Was Not About Rest. It Was About Reconstructing the Offense.
An open date usually arrives with a familiar checklist. Get healthy. Correct the recurring mistakes. Give younger players additional repetitions. Let the coaches recruit and begin preparing for the season’s closing stretch.
Ohio State needed all of those things, but Sayin’s injury turned this particular week into something more consequential. Arthur Smith and Ryan Day had to determine which parts of the offense belong to the system and which parts belonged specifically to Sayin. Those are not necessarily the same thing.
Sayin had thrown for 2,007 yards and 19 touchdowns through seven games. His arm talent allowed Ohio State to attack every portion of the field, and his connection with Jeremiah Smith gave the Buckeyes an answer when structure broke down. Even during an uneven performance at Indiana, Sayin produced the two fourth-down touchdown passes that ultimately decided the game. Replacing that production is not as simple as asking the next quarterback to run the same plays with the same timing.
Day said last week that Sayin is out indefinitely and that Ohio State must prepare as though his absence could extend through the remainder of the season. He also made clear that Fahey remained ahead of St. Clair entering the open week, even while opening the competition and giving both quarterbacks more work. That distinction matters. Fahey earned the backup role through months of practice, and he was the player summoned when Sayin went down in Bloomington. St. Clair’s size, arm strength and former five-star pedigree make him a real alternative, but the staff does not need to manufacture uncertainty merely because the circumstances are uncomfortable.
The best decision is the quarterback who can consistently get Ohio State into the right play, protect the football and make the defense honor more than the line of scrimmage. That may be Fahey. It may become St. Clair. It could eventually involve both. What cannot happen is an offense caught between two identities because the coaches are trying to preserve every page of a playbook built for someone else.
This is now Smith and Day’s most important offensive work of the season: not finding a replacement for Sayin in the abstract, but creating a version of Ohio State that its new quarterback can actually operate on Halloween night.
2. Moving to No. 2 Is a Reward, Not Protection
The AP poll rewarded Ohio State for surviving its own chaos before the rest of the country experienced another round of it. The Buckeyes moved to No. 2 behind Miami after BYU’s loss, while Georgia rose to No. 3 and Indiana climbed to No. 4 following an overtime victory at Michigan. Ohio State received 10 first-place votes despite spending the weekend at home.
That is a meaningful reflection of the résumé. Ohio State owns road victories over Iowa and Indiana, remains unbeaten in Big Ten play and has allowed fewer than 20 points in five consecutive games. The Buckeyes’ only loss came by one point at Texas after they carried a 20-point lead into the fourth quarter. At 6–1, they have earned the benefit of being judged as one of the country’s best teams.
But October has repeatedly demonstrated how little protection a ranking provides. Five of the top seven teams lost the weekend Ohio State beat Indiana. One week later, BYU, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Houston, Tennessee, Iowa and USC all lost. Some fell against ranked competition. Several did not. The season has become less about constructing the perfect résumé and more about avoiding the Saturday that destroys one.
The Big Ten race offers the same mixture of opportunity and urgency. UCLA leads the conference at 5–0, while Ohio State sits at 4–0 and Indiana at 4–1. The Buckeyes control their path because they beat Indiana and still have every conference goal in front of them. That control lasts only as long as they continue winning.
USC dropping out of the AP Top 25 will affect how the matchup is discussed nationally, but it does not change what a loss would mean. Ohio State is expected to win even with its quarterback situation. Falling to a two-loss team immediately after an open week would surrender much of the cushion Saturday’s national results created.
No. 2 is a compliment to what Ohio State has accomplished. It is not permission to play like the hardest work is already finished.
3. Wisconsin Gave Ohio State a Blueprint for USC—and a Warning About Reading Too Much Into One Game
USC’s 24–7 loss was not a case of one unlucky bounce deciding a close game. Wisconsin controlled the structure of the night.
The Badgers intercepted Maiava twice in the first quarter, sacked him five times and held USC to 3.2 yards per play. The Trojans finished with minus-17 net rushing yards because their 48 positive rushing yards were overwhelmed by 65 yards of losses, including 57 yards on five Maiava sacks. USC reached the red zone three times but scored only once, missed one field goal and had another blocked. Its longest completion covered just 15 yards despite 50 pass attempts.
That tape should appeal to Matt Patricia. Ohio State’s defense has spent the last month becoming more disciplined against the run, more disruptive on money downs and more comfortable winning games even when the offense is uneven. Jaylen McClain’s fourth-down sack and forced fumble at Indiana was exactly the kind of pressure play Wisconsin reproduced against USC. If the Buckeyes can prevent a credible Trojans running game, they can make Maiava carry the night from a shrinking pocket.
The opportunity extends beyond sacks. Wisconsin disguised coverage well enough to bait two early interceptions, then forced USC to drive the field in small pieces. Maiava completed 31 passes, but none gained more than 15 yards. That is how a defense can concede completions without surrendering control: tackle immediately, eliminate explosives and wait for pressure or impatience to create the negative play.
Ohio State cannot assume the same USC offense will appear Saturday. Lincoln Riley has a full week to respond, the Trojans will be back in the Coliseum and embarrassment tends to focus a talented roster. Before Wisconsin, Maiava had thrown only three interceptions in 224 attempts and had been among the nation’s leaders in passing production. One poor night does not erase what he can do when protected.
Still, Wisconsin exposed a matchup Ohio State is equipped to attack. The Buckeyes do not need their replacement quarterback to win a shootout if the defensive front can turn USC’s offense into another one-dimensional, mistake-prone unit.
4. Ohio State Has to Help Its New Quarterback Before Asking Him to Save the Offense
The easiest way to mishandle a quarterback change is to spend all week discussing how the new starter must perform while ignoring everything around him.
Whether Fahey or St. Clair starts, Ohio State’s quarterback will be making his first collegiate start in a sold-out Coliseum during a nationally televised night game. He will be replacing a player who threw 19 touchdowns in seven starts, operating an offense with championship expectations and trying to avoid the early mistake that gives a wounded home team belief. There is no play-call capable of removing all of that pressure.
The other 10 players can reduce it.
That begins with the offensive line and a running game that has alternated between encouraging stretches and disappearing acts. Ohio State rushed for only 78 yards at Indiana and allowed four sacks. Sayin’s ability to create the game’s biggest play on fourth down helped the Buckeyes survive, but that is not a dependable plan for a first-time starter. The line must give the new quarterback a chance to establish rhythm before obvious passing situations allow USC to disguise pressure.
The challenge grew during the open week. Ja’Kobi Jackson, who missed the Indiana game, reportedly underwent foot surgery and is expected to remain unavailable for at least the immediate future. That places more responsibility on Bo Jackson, Isaiah West and Legend Bey. It also means the Buckeyes cannot merely promise to run the ball; they need a rushing plan that creates favorable angles, uses movement and makes the quarterback part of the arithmetic when appropriate.
Fahey’s mobility may help, and St. Clair’s size could create another short-yardage option. Neither should be exposed to unnecessary contact simply to prove the offense has changed. The goal is to use enough quarterback movement, misdirection, screens and quick throws to prevent USC from attacking one launch point all evening.
Ohio State still has more offensive talent than USC. Jeremiah Smith, Brandon Inniss, Devin McCuin, Phillip Bell and the running backs give the next quarterback answers most first-time starters do not possess. The responsibility belongs to the coaches and veterans to make those answers accessible. If the Buckeyes need Fahey or St. Clair to become Sayin immediately, they will have designed the wrong test.
5. Jeremiah Smith’s Next Record May Be the New Quarterback’s Best Friend
Smith enters Saturday with 39 career receiving touchdowns, tied with Michigan’s Braylon Edwards for the Big Ten record. His next touchdown will make him the conference’s career leader, adding another milestone to a season in which he has already become Ohio State’s leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
The record is significant on its own. The situation around it may be even more revealing.
Smith has spent most of the season as the player who expands Ohio State’s offense. Defenses tilt coverage toward him, and his presence creates room for everyone else. Sayin’s willingness to challenge those coverages allowed Smith to produce 52 receptions, 984 yards and 12 touchdowns through seven games. Now Smith must also become the player who settles the offense.
That does not mean forcing him the ball whenever the new quarterback feels pressure. USC will expect that approach and build coverage specifically to punish it. Instead, Ohio State can use Smith to simplify decisions. Quick isolation throws, motion that identifies coverage, back-shoulder opportunities and clearly defined one-on-one matchups can give Fahey or St. Clair an early completion without asking him to scan the entire field.
Smith’s responsibility grows, too. His route precision, communication and body language will matter to a young quarterback trying to process the game at a new speed. The great receivers do more than win contested catches; they make the picture clearer for the person delivering the football.
There is something fitting about Smith having a chance to claim the Big Ten touchdown record in the first game of Ohio State’s new offensive reality. The Buckeyes no longer have the quarterback who helped build his Heisman campaign. If Smith can remain productive while helping a replacement quarterback win in Los Angeles, his value to this team will become even more obvious.
6. This Is a Big Ten Game That Still Feels Like a Rose Bowl Intersection
Ohio State and USC will meet for the 25th time Saturday, but for the first time as Big Ten opponents. The logos will be familiar, the uniforms will be iconic and the setting will evoke decades of Rose Bowl history. The standings will classify it as another conference game.
That combination gives the matchup a strange weight. Ohio State has not faced USC since beating the Trojans 24–7 in the 2017 Cotton Bowl and has not played at the Coliseum since a 35–3 loss in 2008. The Buckeyes trail the all-time series 13–10–1 and are only 2–5–1 in true road games against USC. History does not decide Saturday’s result, but it explains why the environment will feel larger than a meeting with an unranked two-loss opponent ordinarily would.
The kickoff adds to it. Ohio State and USC will play at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC, which means a 4:30 p.m. local start that moves from the late-afternoon light into Halloween night. USC has announced the game as a sellout. The Trojans’ playoff position may have weakened in Madison, but their opportunity to disrupt Ohio State’s season became even more valuable.
That is the danger of looking at Wisconsin’s result and deciding the hardest part of the trip disappeared. USC does not have to protect an undefeated record or a top-20 ranking now. It can play aggressively, empty the playbook and treat Ohio State’s inexperienced quarterback as an invitation to manufacture pressure. The Coliseum crowd will not care that the Trojans gained only 241 yards a week earlier if an early turnover puts them ahead.
Ohio State has already won at Kinnick Stadium and Memorial Stadium this season. Those experiences should matter. The Buckeyes understand how to communicate on the road, survive momentum swings and play a fourth quarter when the opponent still believes. Saturday is not their first road examination; it is the first one with a different offensive leader.
The setting will make it look like a classic. Ohio State’s discipline must make it feel routine.
What Ohio State Must Show Saturday
The final score will matter most, but five indicators should tell us whether Ohio State’s open-week reconstruction can last beyond one game:
1. A manageable opening script for the quarterback. The first two series should feature defined reads, early completions and protection answers rather than an immediate demand for difficult third-down conversions.
2. A credible running game before halftime. Ohio State does not need 250 rushing yards, but it cannot allow USC to treat every meaningful snap as a passing down.
3. Pressure without sacrificing explosive plays. Wisconsin sacked Maiava five times while keeping every completion under 16 yards. Ohio State should pursue the same balance.
4. Production beyond Smith. The record chase will draw attention, but Inniss, McCuin, Bell and the backs must prevent USC from turning Smith’s coverage into a shortcut for the defense.
5. Composure if USC starts fast. The Trojans are talented enough to create an early surge. Ohio State’s response will reveal whether the new quarterback structure is sturdy or merely rehearsed.
The Bottom Line
Ohio State’s open week produced two truths that seem to point in opposite directions. The national landscape made the Buckeyes’ position stronger, and USC’s loss made Saturday’s matchup appear more favorable. At the same time, Sayin’s indefinite absence confirmed that Ohio State will have to pursue every remaining goal with a substantially smaller offensive margin for error.
This team is equipped to survive that change. The defense has allowed 13.4 points per game and has become the most dependable part of the roster. Smith is the best offensive player in the country. The Buckeyes have multiple capable running backs, experienced receivers and an extra week to build the offense around Fahey, St. Clair or some combination of both.
USC remains dangerous because Riley and Maiava can create offense quickly, particularly at home. But the Trojans’ protection problems and inability to run the ball at Wisconsin align with Ohio State’s greatest strength. The Buckeyes should be able to shorten the game, pressure Maiava and keep their new quarterback from needing to win it alone.
It may not look like the offense that carried Ohio State through September. For now, it does not have to.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, USC 13
Game Information
● Matchup: No. 2 Ohio State at USC
● Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026
● Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT
● Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
● Television: NBC
● Records: Ohio State 6–1 (4–0 Big Ten); USC 6–2 (3–2 Big Ten)
Photo Credit: Clevand.com