Ohio State had an extra week to prepare for USC. The Trojans probably wish they could have erased the week they just played.
While the Buckeyes rested after their hard-earned 19–15 victory at Indiana, USC went to Madison ranked No. 16 and left with a 24–7 loss that exposed nearly every concern surrounding Lincoln Riley’s team. The Trojans finished with minus-17 rushing yards, allowed five sacks, turned the ball over twice and failed to score after the second quarter. An offense that had spent most of the season looking explosive suddenly looked trapped.
That result changes the mood around Saturday night, but it should not change Ohio State’s respect for the challenge. The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is sold out. USC is 6–2, still possesses one of the Big Ten’s most dangerous quarterbacks in Jayden Maiava and will be playing to preserve whatever remains of its College Football Playoff hopes. A wounded team with a gifted offensive coach can be dangerous, especially at home.
Ohio State also arrives with a much larger question than its No. 2 ranking suggests. Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm, leaving Ryan Day to choose between true freshman Luke Fahey and sophomore Tavien St. Clair. The Buckeyes’ defense has played well enough to support a young quarterback, but the offense must discover how much it can ask of its replacement without shrinking into something predictable.
That is what makes this matchup fascinating. USC must prove the Wisconsin performance was an aberration. Ohio State must prove it can remain a championship contender without the quarterback who directed the first seven games. The Trojans need to protect Maiava. The Buckeyes need to protect whoever takes the first snap. Both teams have elite receiving talent capable of changing the game, but neither will be able to use it if the line of scrimmage looks anything like it did in its most recent outing.
Saturday is also the first head-to-head meeting between Ryan Day and Lincoln Riley, two coaches whose paths to the top once looked remarkably similar. Years later, they finally meet with their programs at very different points in the season—and with both coaches facing questions about how they respond when the original plan is no longer available.
Game Information
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Matchup | No. 2 Ohio State at USC |
| Date | Saturday, October 31, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT |
| Location | United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |
| Television | NBC |
| Ohio State record | 6–1 overall, 4–0 Big Ten |
| USC record | 6–2 overall, 3–2 Big Ten |
| Betting line | Ohio State favored by approximately 6.5–7 points; total around 53.5 |
| Series | USC leads 13–10–1 |
Ohio State and USC have not met since the Buckeyes won 24–7 in the Cotton Bowl following the 2017 season. The last meeting in Los Angeles came in 2008, when USC defeated Ohio State 35–3. Saturday will be their first meeting as Big Ten opponents and Ohio State’s first visit to the Coliseum in 18 years.
Ohio State Preview
There is no honest way to discuss Ohio State’s offense without beginning at quarterback. Sayin has completed 131 of 192 passes for 2,007 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. He supplied the explosive throws, managed the offense at the line and repeatedly provided an answer when the running game left the Buckeyes in difficult down-and-distance situations.
Now the offense belongs to either Fahey or St. Clair.
Day said both quarterbacks would receive first-team work during the open week, although Fahey entered the Indiana game when Sayin was injured and has remained the logical favorite. Fahey has completed 9 of 13 passes for 203 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in limited action. St. Clair has completed 5 of 7 for 52 yards and one touchdown. Neither has attempted a meaningful college pass with a full game hanging in the balance.
The staff’s task is not to make either quarterback imitate Sayin. It is to build a plan around what the chosen starter does comfortably. Defined reads, quick-game concepts, movement throws and an occasional designed run can reduce the amount of information a young quarterback must process at once. Jeremiah Smith can also provide an immediate source of stability through screens, hitches, slants and other touches that do not require the quarterback to hold the ball while the play develops.
There is a difference, however, between helping a quarterback and coaching as though he cannot function. If Ohio State hands the ball off on every early down, USC will crowd the line, create third-and-long and allow its pass rush to attack an obvious throwing situation. The Buckeyes need to let their starter throw before the defense knows a pass is coming. An early completion to Smith, Brandon Inniss, Chris Henry Jr. or a tight end can settle the quarterback and discourage the Trojans from treating every first down as a running play.
USC’s loss at Wisconsin provides the blueprint Ohio State’s defense will study, but the Trojans’ defense also gave Riley’s team opportunities to remain competitive. Wisconsin produced only 200 total yards and averaged 3.5 yards per play. USC’s defense forced the Badgers to work, yet its own offense repeatedly gave away field position and failed to create enough scoring chances.
That should influence Ohio State’s approach. The Buckeyes do not need their new quarterback to win a shootout by himself. They need him to avoid the turnover that creates an easy USC touchdown, get the offense into the correct play and complete enough throws that the Trojans cannot devote everyone to the run. A punt is survivable. A blind throw into disguised coverage on Ohio State’s side of the field may not be.
The offensive line carries as much responsibility as the quarterback. Ohio State rushed for only 78 yards against Indiana, and Bo Jackson managed 56 yards on 18 carries. Too many runs were disrupted before Jackson had an opportunity to make a decision. Too many passing situations required Sayin to solve pressure rather than operate from a clean platform.
Jackson has rushed for 516 yards and five touchdowns through seven games, but Ohio State needs something more dependable than the occasional explosive gain. The Buckeyes need the four- and five-yard runs that keep the full playbook available. Ja’Kobi Jackson’s foot injury and surgery leave the backfield thinner, placing even more importance on Bo Jackson’s ability to handle the workload and on the line’s ability to keep him from absorbing contact in the backfield.
USC allowed Wisconsin to win without a productive passing game, but the Trojans also watched their own offensive line surrender the game. Ohio State should understand the warning. Saturday may not belong to the team with the most creative play sheet. It may belong to the team that can execute an ordinary inside run, protect on third down and avoid giving the opponent a short field.
Ohio State’s defense is the reason the quarterback injury does not have to become a season-ending crisis. The Buckeyes allow 13.4 points, 264.3 total yards and 171.4 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing only 52.6 percent of their attempts and have thrown three touchdown passes through seven games.
Those numbers have been earned in meaningful situations. Ohio State held Indiana to 15 points despite two interceptions by the offense and several possessions in which the defense had little margin for error. Jay Timmons forced a fumble, Jaylen McClain created another with a strip-sack and Earl Little Jr. played one of his most active games of the season. The Buckeyes did not dominate every snap, but they consistently prevented one mistake from becoming a sequence of them.
USC presents an offense with more potential than its performance at Wisconsin suggested. Maiava has averaged nearly 288 passing yards per game and thrown 19 touchdown passes. Before the Wisconsin loss, he had thrown only three interceptions all season. He delivered 301 yards and three touchdowns in USC’s road victory at Penn State and has shown he can punish a defense that gives him time.
Wisconsin did not give him time. The Badgers sacked Maiava five times, held USC to minus-17 rushing yards and made the Trojans one-dimensional. Maiava still threw for 258 yards, but it required 50 attempts, and his two first-half interceptions helped Wisconsin control the game.
Ohio State should attack the weakness without becoming reckless. Matt Patricia does not need to send six defenders on every passing down. The Buckeyes need their front to compress the pocket, maintain rush lanes and make Maiava reset his feet. If they can produce pressure with four, the secondary can keep enough bodies in coverage to limit the deep shots Riley wants to create.
The run defense should make USC prove that Wisconsin was merely one awful night. King Miller entered that game as a productive, physical back but gained only seven yards on 11 carries. USC’s official box score credited the team with minus-17 yards after the sacks were included. Riley will undoubtedly look for quick answers—screens, perimeter throws, misdirection and tempo—to prevent Ohio State from attacking the same way.
That places an emphasis on tackling. A quick throw is not a problem if it becomes a four-yard gain. It becomes a problem when the first defender misses and a routine completion turns into 30 yards. The Buckeyes must force USC to string together long possessions rather than surrendering the single explosive play that changes the game’s temperature.
Third down remains another important battleground. Before the Wisconsin game, USC had converted more than half of its opportunities. The Trojans went 7 of 15 in Madison, respectable on paper, but produced only one touchdown and repeatedly failed to finish promising drives. Ohio State’s goal should be to create third-and-seven or longer, make Maiava hold the ball and allow the pass rush to influence him without sacrificing coverage.
If the Buckeyes can keep USC below 20 points, the new quarterback will not need to be spectacular. That is the formula: force the Trojans to earn the entire field, avoid giving up the cheap score and let the defense provide the offense enough time to settle into the night.
USC Preview
USC entered Wisconsin averaging more than 36 points and 460 yards per game. It left with seven points, 241 yards and the lowest scoring output of Riley’s tenure at USC. The Trojans produced one sustained touchdown drive in the second quarter and did not score again.
That collapse is impossible to ignore, but it would be a mistake to assume it permanently defines the offense. Riley remains one of the sport’s most creative play callers. Maiava has the arm talent and experience to stress every level of a defense. Freshman Trent Mosley has already demonstrated that he can turn a short reception into an explosive play, while USC has enough receiving options to punish a secondary that gives too much attention to one target.
The problem is that none of those weapons matter when the protection fails. Wisconsin generated pressure without needing to sacrifice its coverage, and USC never established enough of a running threat to slow the rush. Five sacks and minus-17 rushing yards are not simply poor statistics; they are evidence of an offense losing control of the terms of the game.
Expect Riley to respond with pace and accessible throws. Screens, quick outs, running back releases and moving pockets could help Maiava get the ball out before Ohio State’s front arrives. USC may also use formations and motion to make the Buckeyes communicate before the snap. The Trojans cannot spend another game asking Maiava to stand in a collapsing pocket and rescue the offense on third-and-long.
Miller is central to the response. Through eight games he has rushed for more than 600 yards and averages better than five yards per carry, even after the Wisconsin disaster. If USC can create four or five yards on first down, Riley can use play action and keep Ohio State from treating every snap as a pass. If Miller is again met in the backfield, Maiava will be forced into the same kind of volume that produced 50 attempts and two interceptions.
The emotional component also matters. USC’s playoff path narrowed considerably in Madison. The Trojans are no longer ranked in the AP poll, although they remain No. 25 in the Coaches Poll, and a third loss would almost certainly end any realistic at-large argument. That can create urgency, but urgency only helps if it produces focus rather than panic.
The Trojans will take shots. Riley is unlikely to enter a sold-out Coliseum and call the game as though seven points will be enough. Ohio State must be ready for calculated aggression early, particularly if USC believes the Buckeyes’ offense will need time to find its footing.
The defense was not the reason USC lost at Wisconsin. The Trojans allowed only 200 yards, 16 first downs and 3.5 yards per play. Wisconsin completed just six passes for 58 yards. USC’s defense kept the game within reach until the offense’s continued failures made that impossible.
That performance should command Ohio State’s attention. Gary Patterson’s group has become more organized and more aggressive, especially against the run. The Trojans are willing to change the picture after the snap and create uncertainty about where the pressure is coming from. That is exactly the kind of structure that can bother a quarterback making his first start.
Freshman edge Luke Wafle and defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart give USC disruptive talent near the line of scrimmage. If Ohio State repeatedly reaches third-and-long, Patterson can move those pieces, disguise the fourth rusher and make Fahey or St. Clair confirm the coverage while the pocket narrows.
The Trojans’ vulnerability remains the possibility of explosive passes when the pressure does not arrive. Their secondary will face a receiver unlike anyone it has seen this season. Smith enters the game with 52 receptions for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns in seven games. He is already Ohio State’s career leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, and he needs only 16 yards to reach 1,000 for the season.
USC can devote a safety to Smith, but that decision creates opportunities elsewhere. Chris Henry Jr. made important downfield catches at Indiana, while Inniss and the tight ends can work the middle if the Trojans stretch their coverage toward No. 4. Ohio State’s new quarterback must recognize when Smith is the correct answer and when Smith’s presence has created the correct answer somewhere else.
USC’s defense does not need to dominate. If it can force two turnovers, win field position and keep Ohio State below 24 points, the Trojans will have every opportunity to win. That makes patience essential for the Buckeyes. There will be moments when a punt is the right outcome.
Two Blueprints Finally Meet: Ryan Day vs. Lincoln Riley
Back in 2019, Buckeye50 published “Blueprint of Success”, examining the young offensive minds who were becoming the new model for major college football programs. Riley was already one of the defining examples, and Day was beginning his first full season as Ohio State’s head coach.
The resemblance between their paths was striking.
Riley arrived at Oklahoma as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2015. After two seasons directing one of the nation’s most productive offenses, he was promoted at age 33 when Bob Stoops retired in 2017. Rather than conduct a national search, Oklahoma trusted the young assistant already inside the building to preserve the program’s identity and modernize it at the same time.
Ohio State followed a similar route. Day joined Urban Meyer’s staff as co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2017, became the primary offensive coordinator in 2018 and went 3–0 as acting head coach during Meyer’s suspension. When Meyer stepped down after the season, Ohio State promoted the 39-year-old Day instead of pursuing an established head coach elsewhere.
Both inherited national contenders. Both were known for quarterback development and sophisticated passing offenses. Both faced the same skeptical question: could a first-time head coach maintain a powerhouse after replacing a future Hall of Famer?
Riley answered first with four consecutive Big 12 championships at Oklahoma and three College Football Playoff appearances. Day built one of the best winning percentages in college football, repeatedly reached the playoff and ultimately delivered a national championship. Their early careers helped validate the succession model: identify the person already shaping the program’s most important unit, then hand him the entire operation before another school can.
The paths eventually separated. Riley stunned the sport by leaving Oklahoma for USC after the 2021 season, choosing the challenge of rebuilding a national brand in Los Angeles. Day stayed in Columbus and continued carrying the expectations that come with Ohio State. Riley has spent his USC tenure trying to build a defense capable of supporting his offense. Day has faced the opposite evolution, gradually leaning on elite defenses when the offense has not always controlled the game.
That makes their first meeting more than a novelty. The offensive innovators arrive with the game’s central questions located somewhere else. Can Riley protect Maiava and produce a physical response after USC was overwhelmed up front? Can Day and Arthur Smith create a functional offense around a backup quarterback while trusting Ohio State’s defense to carry more of the weight?
In 2019, the blueprint was about promoting young offensive minds and preserving success. Seven years later, Saturday’s meeting is about the next stage of that blueprint: adapting when injuries, roster flaws and championship pressure force the coach to win in a different way.
Buckeye Spotlight: Luke Fahey
The spotlight belongs to Fahey because no player’s week has changed more dramatically. He began the season as a true freshman backup. He now appears likely to make his first collegiate start in a sold-out primetime road game near his Southern California home.
Fahey does not need to prove he is Sayin. He needs to prove that the moment will not speed him up. The most important plays may not be the downfield completions. They may be the snap when he checks the protection correctly, takes a five-yard completion instead of forcing Smith into double coverage or throws the ball away rather than turning a broken play into a sack.
The open week should help. Day and Smith have had time to identify the concepts Fahey executes with the most confidence and build complementary calls around them. Moving the pocket can change the launch point. An occasional quarterback run can make USC account for another body. Early throws to Smith and the backs can provide completions before Patterson’s pressure packages become a factor.
Ohio State also needs to let Fahey play. A quarterback can feel when the staff is afraid of his mistake, and an offense can become tense when every pass feels like an emergency. Give him defined reads, allow him to throw on early downs and accept that one or two freshman moments may be part of the evening.
Spotlight prediction: Fahey starts and completes 17 of 26 passes for approximately 205 yards, one touchdown and one interception. His most important contribution is protecting the football after halftime and converting one critical third down with his legs.
Trojan Spotlight: Jayden Maiava
Maiava threw 50 passes at Wisconsin because USC never gave him another way to play. He completed 31 for 258 yards and one touchdown, but the two interceptions and five sacks shaped the game far more than the raw yardage.
Saturday is an immediate test of his response. Experienced quarterbacks cannot allow one difficult night to create hesitation the following week. Maiava must trust his protection long enough to attack when the opportunity is available, but he also must recognize when Ohio State has won the snap and live for the next one.
His movement will be important. Ohio State wants to compress the pocket without creating an escape lane. Maiava can extend a play and force defensive backs to cover longer, which is often when a Riley offense finds its biggest gains. The Buckeyes need controlled pressure rather than defenders racing past the quarterback in search of a highlight.
If Maiava protects the football and USC establishes even a modest running game, the Trojans can stress Ohio State more than Indiana did. If he is again forced to attempt 45 or 50 passes against a defense waiting for the throw, the advantage belongs to the Buckeyes.
Three Keys to the Game
1. Keep the New Quarterback Out of Third-and-Long
The identity of Ohio State’s starter matters, but his down-and-distance situations may matter more. Productive first-down runs and quick completions must create second-and-five instead of second-and-12. Patterson becomes much more dangerous when he can disguise pressure against an obvious pass.
2. Make USC Prove It Can Run the Football
Minus-17 rushing yards cannot be dismissed as an ordinary bad game. Ohio State should control the run without overcommitting extra defenders, keep safeties available against the explosive pass and force USC to demonstrate that its line has corrected what failed at Wisconsin.
3. Win the Turnover and Field-Position Battle
Neither offense enters under ideal conditions. Ohio State is changing quarterbacks; USC is coming off two interceptions and five sacks. A short field may be more valuable than another 100 yards of total offense. The Buckeyes cannot ask a freshman to repeatedly drive 80 yards, and they cannot give Riley easy scoring opportunities.
Five Things to Watch
Who Takes the First Snap?
Fahey remains the favorite, but Day has publicly left the competition open. The choice will reveal whether the staff values Fahey’s current command or St. Clair’s physical upside. It is also possible both play, although a planned rotation could make it harder for either quarterback to establish rhythm.
How Does USC Respond Emotionally?
The Trojans were embarrassed in Madison and dropped out of the AP Top 25. Some teams respond to that kind of result with urgency; others tighten when the next mistake arrives. Ohio State should expect USC’s best opening script and be prepared to withstand an aggressive first quarter.
Can Ohio State Run When USC Expects It?
The Buckeyes will not be able to disguise their desire to help the new quarterback. USC knows Jackson is central to the plan. Ohio State must still create movement, particularly in short yardage and the red zone. If the Buckeyes cannot gain two yards when everyone expects a run, the quarterback’s job becomes dramatically harder.
Where Does Jeremiah Smith Align?
Smith’s alignment can simplify the quarterback’s read. Motion may reveal man or zone coverage. Slot alignments can make it more difficult for USC to press him and easier for Ohio State to create free access. The Buckeyes should make the Trojans adjust to Smith throughout the evening rather than leaving him in one place.
Can the Buckeyes Finish Drives?
Ohio State settled for short field goals at Indiana and repeatedly allowed manageable scoring opportunities to become tense. USC’s defense is good enough to make the field shrink in the red zone. Touchdowns rather than field goals would prevent Riley from remaining patient with his offense.
Water Cooler
The history gives this game a larger feel than an ordinary conference matchup. Ohio State and USC have met 24 times, with the Trojans holding a 13–10–1 advantage. Their shared history includes seven Rose Bowls, national championship implications and rosters filled with some of the sport’s most recognizable players.
The Coliseum has not been kind to Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ last win there came in 1946. Their two most recent visits produced a 42–3 loss in 1989 and a 35–3 loss in 2008. Saturday offers an opportunity to end an 80-year drought while beginning a new chapter in the series as conference opponents.
The most recent meeting carries a much better memory. Ohio State defeated USC 24–7 in the 2017 Cotton Bowl, building a 24–0 halftime advantage and forcing four turnovers. Both teams entered as conference champions left outside the playoff. This time, they meet during the regular season with the playoff picture still taking shape.
Ohio State remains unbeaten in Big Ten play and controls its conference path. The Buckeyes have already won at Iowa and Indiana, and a victory in Los Angeles would create momentum before home games against Oregon and Northwestern. A second loss would not automatically eliminate Ohio State from the 12-team playoff, but it would erase nearly all remaining margin for error and make reaching the Big Ten Championship Game more complicated.
USC’s position is more desperate. Losses to Oregon and Wisconsin leave the Trojans 3–2 in conference play. A win over No. 2 Ohio State would immediately become the signature result of Riley’s USC tenure and keep an at-large playoff conversation alive. A third loss would shift the program’s focus toward finishing strongly and reshaping the narrative around the season.
One final record-book note: Smith enters with 984 receiving yards this season, leaving him 16 shy of his third consecutive 1,000-yard season. He already owns Ohio State’s career records for receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. The larger question is not whether he reaches another milestone Saturday, but whether a first-time starting quarterback can consistently get the ball to the best player on the field.
Buckeye50 Prediction
The Wisconsin result makes USC more difficult to evaluate. The Trojans are too talented offensively to assume they will look that poor again, and Riley has a full week to build answers for the pressure that overwhelmed his line. A sold-out Coliseum and Ohio State’s uncertainty at quarterback keep this from feeling comfortable.
Still, the matchup favors the Buckeyes in the area most likely to decide the game. Ohio State’s defense is better than Wisconsin’s, and USC has not shown that its offensive line can consistently handle a physical front. If the Buckeyes stop the run without sacrificing coverage, Maiava will again be asked to carry too much of the offense.
Ohio State’s own offense will be uneven. Expect a few stalled possessions, at least one freshman mistake and stretches when the Buckeyes lean heavily on Jackson. I also expect the open week to produce a thoughtful first script, several manufactured touches for Smith and enough manageable throws for Fahey to settle into the game.
The defense creates one short field, Jackson finishes a red-zone possession and Smith reaches 1,000 yards with the play that gives Ohio State separation in the second half. USC responds better than it did in Madison, but the Buckeyes force Maiava into another late turnover and leave Los Angeles with a valuable road win.
Saturday will tell us whether Ohio State can remain the same kind of contender while winning in a different way. With Sayin unavailable, the Buckeyes do not need a perfect replacement. They need a composed one—and they need the rest of the roster to make sure he is not asked to carry the weight alone.
Final Score: Ohio State 27, USC 17