Ohio State’s playoff hopes take a hit, Miami holds the top spot, and a new contender emerges in the race for a first-round bye.
Just when the College Football Playoff picture appeared to be settling into place, college football reminded everyone why the games are played on Saturdays.
Ohio State entered the weekend ranked No. 2 nationally, seemingly positioned for another run at a first-round bye and a favorable road to the national championship. Instead, a disappointing 30–18 loss at USC sent the Buckeyes tumbling nine spots to No. 11 in the latest Associated Press Top 25. Meanwhile, Georgia, Utah, and Notre Dame took advantage of the shakeup, each climbing into the projected top four.
Miami remains the nation’s top-ranked team, surviving a 38–35 battle against North Carolina to preserve its undefeated season. Georgia continued to strengthen its case with a convincing victory over Florida, while Utah and UCLA remained unbeaten and further established themselves as legitimate championship contenders.
With the first official College Football Playoff rankings arriving Tuesday, November 3, this week’s projections provide an early glimpse into how the selection committee could view the contenders.
Here is how Buckeye50 sees the field entering November, and what the latest developments mean for Ohio State’s postseason hopes.
1. Miami Hurricanes (8–0)
Miami continues to control the top spot in our playoff projection, although the Hurricanes certainly made things interesting against North Carolina.
The 38–35 victory was closer than Miami would have preferred, but surviving difficult road environments is part of building a championship résumé. The Hurricanes have consistently found ways to win, and their undefeated record remains their strongest argument for the No. 1 seed.
The question moving forward is whether Miami can maintain that position as the schedule becomes more demanding. Close victories leave room for challengers, especially with Georgia and Utah beginning to strengthen their respective cases.
Playoff outlook: Miami currently owns the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Continued success would keep the Hurricanes on the most favorable path through the bracket.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (7–1)
Georgia looks increasingly like the team nobody wants to face in December.
The Bulldogs handled Florida 27–8 in their rivalry matchup, demonstrating the kind of defensive consistency that has become synonymous with Kirby Smart’s program. After moving up one spot in the AP rankings, Georgia has positioned itself as the highest-ranked SEC representative.
There is still plenty of football remaining, and the competition within the SEC means Georgia cannot afford many mistakes. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs possess the physicality, experience, and championship pedigree necessary to make another deep postseason run.
Playoff outlook: Georgia moves into the No. 2 seed in our projection, securing a first-round bye and potentially setting up a quarterfinal meeting against either BYU or Texas.
3. Utah Utes (8–0)
There may not be a more intriguing team in the country right now than Utah.
The Utes improved to 8–0 following a 49–25 victory over Cincinnati, continuing a season that has propelled them into the national championship conversation. Their rise to No. 3 in the AP poll represents one of the most significant developments in this week’s rankings.
Utah has built its reputation on disciplined football and physicality, two characteristics that translate particularly well to postseason competition. The undefeated record is impressive, but the upcoming showdown with BYU will provide an even clearer indication of where this team stands.
Playoff outlook: Utah receives the No. 3 seed and a bye in our projection. A victory over BYU would strengthen its national position and provide another significant argument for a top-four finish.
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7–1)
Notre Dame has quietly worked its way back into the playoff conversation as one of the nation’s strongest teams.
The Fighting Irish defeated Navy 35–13, improving to 7–1 and moving into the fourth position in the AP poll. With the teams immediately surrounding them experiencing different levels of success, Notre Dame has taken advantage of its opportunities to climb.
The challenge for Notre Dame will be maintaining that position without the benefit of a conference championship game. The Irish must build a résumé strong enough to withstand potential conference-title winners and late-season surges from teams currently positioned below them.
Playoff outlook: Notre Dame claims the final first-round bye in our current bracket. Its margin for error remains narrow, particularly with undefeated UCLA immediately behind it.
5. UCLA Bruins (8–0)
UCLA might be the most overlooked undefeated team in the country.
The Bruins continued their impressive season with a commanding 27–0 shutout of Nevada, improving to 8–0 and climbing to No. 5 nationally. Their ability to win games decisively has made it increasingly difficult to dismiss their championship potential.
UCLA also represents a fascinating storyline within the Big Ten. With Ohio State suffering its second defeat and Indiana remaining firmly in contention, the conference race has become considerably more complicated.
The Bruins are now positioned to challenge for a conference championship and potentially climb into the coveted first-round-bye positions.
Playoff outlook: UCLA receives the No. 5 seed and hosts Boise State in the opening round. Of the teams outside the top four, the Bruins appear particularly well-positioned to earn a bye if they continue winning.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (8–1)
Indiana remains firmly in the playoff picture, although the Hoosiers had to work considerably harder than expected against Minnesota.
Their 23–16 overtime victory kept Indiana in the national conversation, but the close result contributed to a two-position slide in the AP rankings.
The Hoosiers have already demonstrated they can compete with the nation’s elite. However, the margin between a first-round bye and a difficult opening-round matchup is becoming increasingly small.
Playoff outlook: Indiana is projected as the No. 6 seed, setting up a potential first-round showdown with Ohio State. Considering the recent history between these programs, it would be one of the most intriguing matchups of opening weekend.
7. BYU Cougars (7–1)
BYU continues to establish itself as one of the Big 12’s legitimate contenders.
The Cougars improved to 7–1 after defeating Arizona State 27–20, keeping themselves within striking distance of a conference championship and a playoff berth.
The biggest opportunity on the immediate horizon is a showdown with undefeated Utah. The result will have enormous implications for both teams, potentially determining which program controls the Big 12’s strongest playoff position entering the final month.
Playoff outlook: BYU is our No. 7 seed and would host Texas. A victory over Utah could dramatically improve the Cougars’ position and potentially place them in the first-round-bye conversation.
8. Kentucky Wildcats (7–1)
Kentucky remains one of the more interesting stories in the SEC.
The Wildcats enter November at 7–1 and ranked eighth nationally, a position that would have been difficult to imagine for many preseason projections.
While Kentucky did not play this weekend, the movement around it allowed the program to gain another position in the rankings. Now comes the difficult part: maintaining that standing against the demands of the SEC schedule.
Playoff outlook: Kentucky receives the No. 8 seed and would host Alabama. The matchup would provide an opportunity to prove that the Wildcats belong among the conference’s elite.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (6–2)
Alabama remains in familiar territory: squarely in the national championship conversation despite having little room for additional mistakes.
The Crimson Tide enter November with two losses, meaning every remaining game carries significant postseason implications.
While the SEC’s depth helps provide opportunities for impressive victories, it also creates a dangerous environment for contenders attempting to protect their playoff position.
Playoff outlook: Alabama projects as the No. 9 seed, traveling to Kentucky in the first round. The Crimson Tide remain dangerous, but another defeat could place their postseason hopes in jeopardy.
10. Texas Longhorns (6–2)
Texas remains very much alive in the playoff conversation.
The Longhorns enter November ranked No. 10 with a 6–2 record, keeping themselves within the projected field despite an uneven season.
Like Alabama and Ohio State, Texas must now treat its remaining schedule as an opportunity to build a more convincing postseason résumé. The Longhorns have the talent to compete with anyone, but consistency will determine how far they can climb.
Playoff outlook: Texas is projected to travel to BYU in a fascinating first-round matchup, with a potential quarterfinal meeting against Georgia awaiting the winner.
11. Ohio State Buckeyes (6–2)
A week ago, Ohio State appeared to be sitting comfortably among the nation’s top playoff contenders. One disappointing Saturday in Los Angeles changed that picture considerably.
The Buckeyes fell 30–18 to USC, a game that exposed some familiar frustrations and introduced new questions about the team’s ability to navigate adversity.
With Julian Sayin unavailable because of injury, freshman Luke Fahey made his first career start and completed 21 of 38 passes for 260 yards and a touchdown. Bo Jackson added 121 rushing yards, while Jeremiah Smith caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Ohio State finished with 464 yards of offense compared with USC’s 338, but those numbers fail to tell the complete story. The Buckeyes repeatedly moved the football without finishing drives, settling for four field goals while struggling to generate touchdowns until the fourth quarter.
Defensively, the Buckeyes surrendered explosive plays that allowed USC to establish control early. The Trojans built a 20–9 halftime advantage and never relinquished the lead.
The loss does not eliminate Ohio State from the playoff conversation, but it changes the stakes of every remaining game.
The Buckeyes return home to face Oregon on November 7 in what now feels like a pivotal matchup for their postseason ambitions. A victory would provide an opportunity to stabilize the season and begin rebuilding their playoff résumé. Another defeat, however, would make the road considerably more difficult.
There is also the question of Sayin’s availability. Ohio State’s offensive ceiling is different with its starting quarterback healthy, and his recovery could be one of the defining factors in the team’s November performance.
Playoff outlook: Ohio State falls to No. 11 and would travel to Indiana for a first-round matchup. The winner would advance to face Utah. The Buckeyes remain in the projected field, but there is no longer much room for error.
12. Boise State Broncos (7–1)
Boise State continues to hold the final position in our projected playoff field under the revised 2026 qualification rules.
The Broncos escaped Texas State with a thrilling 46–45 victory, improving to 7–1 and maintaining their No. 20 AP ranking.
The result was hardly convincing, but sometimes surviving is enough. Boise State has now won seven consecutive games and remains the highest-ranked team from the Group of Six conferences.
That distinction is especially important this season. Under the 2026 CFP format, the highest-ranked Group of Six team receives an automatic berth, regardless of whether it wins its conference championship.
Playoff outlook: Boise State claims the projected No. 12 seed and travels to undefeated UCLA. New Mexico, ranked No. 22, remains a team to watch in the Group of Six qualification race.
If the Playoff Started Today
Based on the latest AP Top 25 and our projected automatic qualifiers, here is how the 12-team field would look:
First-round byes: No. 1 Miami, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Utah, No. 4 Notre Dame.
First-round matchups:
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 UCLA — winner faces Notre Dame.
- No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 Indiana — winner faces Utah.
- No. 10 Texas at No. 7 BYU — winner faces Georgia.
- No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Kentucky — winner faces Miami.
The first round is scheduled for December 18–19, followed by the quarterfinals on December 30 and January 1. The semifinals take place January 14–15, with the national championship scheduled for January 25 in Las Vegas.
The Teams on the Outside Looking In
The most notable omission is Ole Miss, which currently sits at No. 12 in the AP poll but finds itself outside our projected bracket because of Boise State’s automatic qualification.
Texas Tech, ranked No. 13, is another team capable of making a significant push as the Big 12 race develops. Wake Forest, LSU, Tennessee, and USC remain within striking distance, creating considerable competition for the final at-large positions.
USC deserves particular attention after its victory over Ohio State. The Trojans climbed to No. 18 nationally, and while they still have work to do, they now possess a significant head-to-head victory over a team currently positioned inside the projected field.
That result could become important if the selection committee is forced to compare the two programs in December.
The Buckeye50 Bottom Line
October ended with Ohio State learning a painful lesson: talent and statistical advantages do not automatically translate into victories.
The Buckeyes still have the ability to make the playoff, and a November rebound could change how the entire postseason picture looks. But the margin for error has disappeared.
Miami continues to set the pace, Georgia and Utah are making strong pushes, and Notre Dame has climbed into the final bye position. Behind them, undefeated UCLA and a determined Indiana program are waiting for an opportunity to move up.
For Ohio State, the message is straightforward. The Buckeyes no longer control a top-four position, but they still have opportunities to strengthen their résumé.
The upcoming showdown with Oregon could tell us whether this team is prepared to respond to adversity or whether the road to the College Football Playoff is about to become significantly more complicated.
For now, Ohio State is still in our projected field.
The question is whether the Buckeyes can make sure they stay there.