Week 5 Predictions – 2026

Cory Steger:  The schedule does not get any easier for Ohio State, as this week the Buckeyes travel to Des Moines to face undefeated Iowa. Buckeye fans know how dangerous of a trip this can be, and Ohio State will need to be firing on all cylinders to leave with a win. Last week, the Buckeyes were significantly better on third down against Illinois as they converted 8 of 12 attempts. Compare that to zero third down conversions against Kent State the previous week. Third downs will be crucial against an Iowa defense that does not give up a ton of yards and points – so far the Hawkeyes have limited opponents to just 32 total points in their four games. Don’t be surprised to see the tight ends, especially Nate Roberts, get more involved this week. Size can give the Hawkeye defense problems. Defensively, a gameplan similar to how Michigan played Iowa should be how the Buckeyes approach this game and that involves stopping running back Kamari Moulton, thus forcing Hank Brown to make plays with his arm. Brown managed to do it when it counted last week, but will it be enough this week?   Ohio State 24, Iowa 17 

Dave Culver:  Ohio State 28  Iowa 13 

Gregg Watson:  A lot of talk this week about the 2017 game.  I just hope the Buckeyes were reminded every practice this week so they will remember what happens if you don’t play to your potential against the Hawkeyes.  OSU is only 2-2 against Iowa in the last four games in Iowa City and only covered the spread once. But that is the past.  What is important is what the 2026 team can do in Kinnick Stadium this weekend.  I have no concerns about the offense, they should be able to be efficient and put up points when they get the chance.  The problem is, Iowa will play to keep the ball away from the Buckeyes and I don’t have a lot of confidence in our defense to get the Hawks off the field.  It is possible that Ohio State offense continues to roll and lights up the scoreboard, but I don’t see it.  Look for low scoring which probably means OSU does not cover the spread once again but does enough to earn a hard-fought victory.   Ohio State 24  Iowa 17 

Jason Harris:  Ohio State travels to Kinnick Stadium for its first Big Ten road game of the season and first trip to Iowa City since the debacle in 2017. The 5^th ranked Buckeyes enter at 3-1 after a 42-19 win over Illinois, while #14 Iowa is unbeaten at 4-0 after a dramatic 20-19 victory over Michigan. Iowa has one of the nation’s best defenses, allowing just 8 points per game, while quarterback Hank Brown has been more of a consistent passer than Iowa has had in quite awhile. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin leads the Buckeyes into this matchup with his top target and Heisman frontrunner Jeremiah Smith coming off a 12 catch 217 yard, four touchdown performance against Illinois and in the process rewriting the Ohio State record books.

The biggest question is whether Ohio State can establish the run and avoid becoming overly dependent on Sayin and Smith. Kinnick Stadium presents a difficult environment, and Iowa’s defense should be capable of keeping the game close if the Buckeyes struggle to run the football. Still, Ohio State has considerably more offensive firepower and should be able to make enough plays especially if the defense improves against the run after allowing Illinois several explosive runs. If the Buckeyes clean that element up and not allow Iowa to play keep away, they could run away and hide. I expect Iowa to have some success early keeping it close for awhile, but the depth and the big play Buckeye offense eventually proves too much for the Hawkeyes to overcome and the Buckeyes leave Iowa with a big road win.   Ohio State 31 Iowa 13

Joe Hylton:  OSU over Iowa – IF Iowa would pull the upset, their toughest remaining games are at Minnesota after a bye and the Turkey Day Friday tussle with Nebraska.  But here’s saying the Bucks come out with a win and we’ll see if the Hawks can still make the CFP.

John Seibert:  Vegas has OSU as a 14 ½ point road favorite.  I’m not a gambling man (really, I’m not) but if I were I think I’d lay the points in this one.  That’s not to make Iowa out to be worldbeaters.  Far from it.  It took a fluke last second play plus a kick return for a score earlier in the game to beat an incredibly average (an I’m being generous here, as they lost to a MAC team in spite of what the Big Ten says) Michigan last week.  It’s more a matter of recognizing Illinois exposed a glaring weakness in OSU’s run D and Iowa runs the ball well, and still not seeing the OSU run game click.  I think Ohio State will win; they have better athletes.  I just think is will be close into the 4^th quarter.  Ohio State  31  Iowa  24

Josh Watson: Ohio State’s passing attack erupted against Illinois, with Julian Sayin throwing for 367 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-19 victory. Jeremiah Smith accounted for 217 yards and four scores on 12 receptions, tying the school’s single-game record for receiving touchdowns. The Buckeyes accumulated 518 total yards, but their defense allowed Illinois to average six yards per rushing attempt—a concern heading into a game Iowa will try to shorten. Iowa enters with tremendous momentum after beating Michigan 20-19 on the final play. Hank Brown drove the Hawkeyes 91 yards before finding Reece Vander Zee for the winning touchdown, demonstrating the composure Iowa has often lacked at quarterback. The Hawkeyes will lean on their defense, avoid unnecessary risks and attempt to turn this into a fourth-quarter game. Ohio State has considerably more offensive firepower, but covering nearly two touchdowns at Kinnick Stadium is another matter. Expect the Buckeyes to win without ever becoming entirely comfortable. Ohio State 27, Iowa 17

Steven Smith:  Some would say Ohio State has not hit their stride on defense yet, and the statistics back that up. We’ve been accustomed to Ohio State being able to roll out a top 10 defense with little or no effort. Four games into the season and the Buckeyes sit 27th nationally, and that seems about right. Luckily, the Bucks meet up with an offensively challenged team in the Hawkeyes.While they may not be an offensive juggernaut, the Hawkeyes are gritty and faced down and bested a stout Michigan defense last Saturday. Michigan folded a bit on the back end when they knew Iowa needed to throw. The Bucks probably will be a bit different. Ohio State’s defense needs to bow up in the middle, pressure QB Hank Brown and keep the Iowa rushing attack in check. If the Hawkeyes get to the point where they need to throw, I expect the Buckeyes’ backs can have better success than the Wolverines. On offense, the Bucks just need to spread the ball a bit more.  I know they want to get Jeremiah as many touches as possible, but in the end, this is a team game and Julian needs to look at his other options once in a while. It will be closer than any Buckeye fan would like, but Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to play. OSU 38-21.

Stefan Armintrout:  This should be a pretty good test for the Buckeyes. Iowa isn’t a powerhouse, but they’ve been a solid team with a good defense for the past few seasons. I don’t see Ohio State losing, but I could see it being close for a while. The Bucks are able to start pulling away late in the game and end up beating the Hawkeyes by a few scores.   (Ohio State, 28-13)

ESECPN GameDay:  Desmond – Iowa   Nick – Ohio State   Pat – Ohio State   Kirk – Ohio State   Caitlin Clark – Iowa

Final Score:  Ohio State 31   Iowa 14 

Cory:  Keelon Russell finally had his breakout game for Alabama in the team’s dominating win over South Carolina last week. Russell threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for 35 yards and a score, as well. The true sophomore has the Crimson Tide offense firing on all cylinders the last two weeks, and they’ll need as much firepower as they can get when traveling to Starkville this Saturday. The Bulldogs are off to a 4-0 start after knocking off previously undefeated Missouri last week, and they’ve got a quarterback of their own in Kamario Taylor. What’s Taylor done so far? Well, he’s thrown for 1,192 yards with 14 touchdowns against two interceptions, and he’s added 185 yards and a score on the ground. Alabama’s defense is not very good so the focus will be on slowing Taylor down, not completely stopping him. While this game should be a lot of fun to watch for neutral observers, ultimately I see the Crimson Tide remaining unbeaten.   Alabama 35, Mississippi State 28

Dave:  Alabama 32  Mississippi State 21

Gregg:  Can someone explain to me why Mississippi State is ranked 16th.  I mean Phil Steele and them ranked 14th in the pre-season, IN THE SEC!  To me it is just another attempt by the AP voters to prop up as many SEC team as possible.  MSU 2-0 in SEC for first time since the Prescott days, but their fall begins this week. Expect the Tide to get the road victory to solidify their poll position, and expect the Bulldogs to only drop a couple of spots to keep the SEC count in the top 25 high.   Alabama 31  Mississippi State 20 

Jason:  # 7 Alabama travels to Starkville to face #16 Mississippi State in a matchup of two undefeated SEC teams. Both teams are 4-0 and 2-0 in conference play, but the Bulldogs have been one of the biggest surprises early in the season after beating South Carolina and then #19 Missouri. Quarterback Kamario Taylor has emerged as a major playmaker, throwing for 360 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Missouri. Alabama enters after a 49-18 win over South Carolina, with quarterback Keelon Russell continuing to produce at a high level.

The matchup could come down to Alabama’s ability to slow down Taylor and Mississippi State’s rushing attack while avoiding the slow starts that have plagued the Crimson Tide earlier this season. Playing in Starkville should make this a difficult road test, but Alabama has more proven talent on both sides of the ball and has won 16 straight meetings with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State should keep this close, particularly if Taylor can create plays against Alabama’s secondary, but the Crimson Tide should make enough plays late to remain unbeaten.   Prediction: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 27

Joe-S-U:  Alabama over Mississippi State – Are the Fighting Finebaums all the way back?  Starting to look that way…MSU just needs to keep it within 3 TD’s to move up in the AP poll.

John:  I watched a little of the MSU/Minnesota game and I really haven’t seen much of Alabama yet this year.  MSU looked pretty good against the Gophers, I just don’t know how good Minnesota is.  ‘Bama rolled Florida State, but FSU is now sitting at 2-2 so again, how good are they really.  Given that this isn’t Nick Saban’s Alabama, it’s still hard to pick against an unbeaten Tide, even on the road.  Alabama  34  Mississippi State 27

Josh: Alabama appears to have found its offensive rhythm, averaging approximately 48 points per game behind quarterback Keelon Russell. The Crimson Tide reinforced that progress with a convincing 49-18 victory over South Carolina. Mississippi State, however, is no longer an opponent Alabama can dismiss. The Bulldogs improved to 4-0 by beating Missouri 31-24, and quarterback Kamario Taylor has thrown 14 touchdown passes against only two interceptions. Mississippi State is producing roughly 43 points per game and now gets Alabama under the lights and cowbells of Davis Wade Stadium. Alabama has dominated this series for nearly two decades, but this feels like a particularly dangerous spot. Mississippi State has the quarterback play and offensive explosiveness required to punish Alabama mistakes, while the Crimson Tide could have one eye on its upcoming showdown with Georgia. This is the upset pick of the week. Taylor delivers a late scoring drive, and the Bulldogs secure the victory that announces their arrival as a serious SEC contender.   Mississippi State 34, Alabama 31

Steven:  Bulldog QB Kamario Taylor has bubbled up to a Heisman Trophy candidate, and deservedly so. He has a 14-2 TD/INT ratio and a 187.87 passer rating. Alabama has been scoring close to 50 per game, but their defense has dropped off a bit. The good thing for the Crimson Tide is that while they have been giving up yards, they have pretty much kept opponents out of the end zone. That being said, something about the Tide has just seemed to be a bit off. This one being on the road, I’ll give the Dogs the edge. It will be a great game to watch, and with Taylor’s penchant for last-second heroics, it could be an instant classic. MSU 36-34.

Trout:  Alabama rolls in this game. The fact that the Bulldogs are ranked, I see the Crimson Tide exposing them and putting up a ton of points. Alabama demolishes Mississippi State. (Alabama, 52-10)

ESECPN GameDay:  Desmond – Mississippi State   Nick – Alabama   Pat – Alabama   Kirk – Alabama   Caitlin Clark – Mississippi State

Final Score:  Alabama 56   Mississippi State 23 

Cory:  Is there a new powerhouse in the SEC? Are the Florida Gators back? Honestly, they might very well be after that impressive beat down of Ole Miss last week. The Florida offense could not be stopped, and when push came to shove the Gators were able to contain Rebel quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Missouri is coming off a tough loss to Mississippi State last week, and they are likely going to drop a second game in a row this week. The name of the game for the Tigers will be slowing down Florida running back Jadan Baugh. Baugh’s already got 600 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this season, and he is a threat to break a long run every time. The problem with Missouri is that they’re one-dimensional on offense. Yes, Austin Simmons has been good at quarterback and is playing mistake-free football, but without a solid run game to support him it’s hard to see the Tigers pulling off the upset in this one.   Florida 35, Missouri 21

Dave:  Florida 21  Missouri 13

Gregg:  I am not sure yet if Florida is for real yet but they are good enough to get a road win against the over-rated Tigers.  Gators win, stays in the top 10, Missouri drops out but I am sure there is another SEC team available to take their place.   Florida 28  Missouri 20

Jason:  #8 Florida heads to Columbia to face #25 Missouri in a matchup between two teams coming off very different results. The Gators are 4-0 and riding a 52-28 win over then #4 Ole Miss, while Missouri enters at 3-1 after a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State. Florida has been one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, averaging 53.5 points and 532.8 yards per game, with running back Jadan Baugh leading the way after rushing for 600 yards and 11 touchdowns through four games. Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons has also shown plenty of ability, throwing for 295 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s loss.

Missouri’s best opportunity will be slowing down Baugh and forcing Florida into more obvious passing situations. The Tigers have struggled with slow starts, while Florida has scored at least 40 points in every game this season. Playing at home should help Missouri stay close early, but the Gators have more offensive consistency and are coming off their best performance of the season.   Prediction: Florida 38, Missouri 21

Joe-S-U:  Florida over Missouri – With Ole Miss doing a faceplant last weekend, the Gators are now ESPN’s darling team in their darling conference.  Texas and Georgia loom in October, but as long as Florida keeps both of those games within 4 TD’s, they’ll stay ranked and in playoff contention.

John:  Two overrated SEC teams. If the Gators win, I’m sure Mizzou will only jump 5 places in the AP Poll, because SEC.  If the Tigers win, they will be top 5 and Florida will fall up all the way to 6, because, again SEC.  Either way, it’s hard for me to care too much about the SEC circle jerk this early in the season.   Florida 35  Missouri 31

Josh: Florida produced its best performance of the season in a 52-28 win over Ole Miss. Aaron Philo completed 16 of 23 passes, while Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark powered a balanced rushing attack. That balance makes the Gators difficult to defend because Philo does not have to carry the offense by himself. Missouri is attempting to rebound from its first loss, a 31-24 defeat at Mississippi State. Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, so the Tigers should be able to challenge Florida through the air. The larger question is whether Missouri’s defense can prevent another opponent from controlling the game on the ground. The Tigers should remain competitive at home, but Florida owns an advantage along both lines of scrimmage. A productive running game allows the Gators to control the second half and pull away by one possession. Florida 34, Missouri 27

Steven:  This one will be won on the ground for Florida. They sit just outside the top 10 in rushing, and Mizzou is not great against it. The Tigers may be able to put up a good fight in the first half, but the Gators will run away in the second half. Florida 42-21.

Trout:  The Gators are a weird team. For the past few years they’ll play some teams and look like title contenders. Other times they’ll play someone and look like they forgot how to play football. I’ll give them the win. They looked good against the Rebels last week and although it’s still early, it looks like they’ve upgraded at coach. I also think Missouri is overrated as well. Florida wins by 10.   (Florida, 24-14)

ESECPN GameDay:  Desmond – Florida   Nick – Florida   Pat – Florida   Kirk – Florida   Caitlin Clark – Florida

Final Score:  Missouri 45   Florida 17  

Cory:  Another week, and another poor offensive performance for the Michigan offense. At a distance, Bryce Underwood’s stats last week look pretty good – 276 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception – but watching the game showed a very different picture. Most of Underwood’s good passes came on broken plays where he scrambled until he found an open guy. Playing from the pocket is still a big struggle for him, which is compounded by the fact that Michigan can’t run the ball. Now, Michigan heads out for their first road game of the season against a decent Minnesota team that’s coming off a good win over Washington. Minnesota shares Michigan’s struggles at running the football, so this should be an interesting game. Last week the Golden Gophers sacked Demond Williams seven times and forced two interceptions. Underwood is better at scrambling than Williams so don’t see the same thing happening this week.   Michigan 24, Minnesota 21

Dave:  Michigan 13  Minnesota 10 (can the Gophers find the magic too)

Gregg:  Will likely miss this one but I am going with the Gophers.  Minnesota has not beat Michigan at home since 1977.  Michigan will have a test of character after the way they lost to Iowa and I really don’t think they have any.  Surely by now the fan base HAS to realize how foolish they sound when the try to defend their football program.  Hail to the conquering zeros!   Minnesota 27  Michigan 24

Jason:  Michigan travels to Minneapolis for the 100th Battle for the Little Brown Jug, looking to bounce back from a heartbreaking 20-19 loss to Iowa. The Wolverines are 3-1* and have been carried by a defense that ranks 7^th nationally in total defense, while Bryce Underwood, although inconsistent, has thrown for 780 yards and five touchdowns through four games. Minnesota is also 3-1 and enters with momentum after a 27-24 road win over Washington, with quarterback Drake Lindsey throwing for 951 yards and seven TDs.

Michigan’s defense should be the deciding factor in a game that could remain close throughout. Minnesota has enough offensive ability to challenge the Wolverines, but Michigan’s physical defensive front should make it difficult for the Gophers to consistently move the ball. The bigger question is whether Underwood and the Michigan offense can produce enough against a Minnesota team playing with confidence. The Wolverines have won 18 straight games at Minnesota, and that experience in this rivalry should help them survive another close one.   Prediction: Michigan 24, Minnesota 17

Joe-S-U:  Minnesota over Michigan – Look, Michigan’s defense can keep them in any game, but how do you bounce back from a loss like that one?  Not often in college football does karma come around that soon, but there it was.  Portnoy’s REALLY gonna have something to cry about after this one.

John:  (Can the Gophers find the magic too) Two 3-1 Big Ten teams, well one is really 2-2 (we all know which one), battle for an eventual bid to the Pollen Weed Eater Bowl or some such nonsense.  It wouldn’t surprise if come late November both the teams are no better than 7-5.  After watching Michigan choak away the game last week, I think I like the Gophers to pull mild upset, but I won’t be surprised either way.   Minnesota 17  Michigan 14

Josh: Can the Gophers find some rivalry-game magic of their own? Yes—they have a legitimate chance. Minnesota is coming off a 27-24 road upset of Washington in which Drake Lindsey threw three touchdown passes. More importantly, the Gophers recorded seven sacks and held Washington to only 40 rushing yards. That defensive front gives Minnesota a plausible formula against a Michigan offense that would prefer to establish the run. Michigan, meanwhile, must recover from a crushing final-play loss at Iowa. The Wolverines have retained the Little Brown Jug since 2015, but last season’s 27-24 meeting nearly changed hands before Minnesota’s apparent onside-kick recovery was erased by an offsides penalty. Minnesota will need to protect Lindsey and avoid the turnovers that Michigan’s defense can turn into easy points. If the Gophers manage that, their pass rush and home crowd can keep this close into the fourth quarter. Michigan has more highly rated talent, but Minnesota enters with confidence while the Wolverines are dealing with a short emotional turnaround.   Minnesota 24, Michigan 20

Steven:  This is the second team in our picks who’s only loss is to Mississippi State.The Gophers wilited under the pressure of the Bulldogs high powered offense in a 38-13 week 2 loss. Luckily, they will not have to deal with the same this week. Michigan is out of the top 100 in total offense. That’s pretty much all you need to know. They are top 10 in defense, but have faced some pretty putrid competition. That kinda takes the shine off that top 10 ranking. I think the Wolverines can keep it close, mainly because I have yet to see enough out of Minnesota to make me a believer. Close ain’t enough, though. Gophers nibble out a close one, 24-21.

Trout:  Unfortunately, I think the Wolverines win. I think the Gophers keep it close, but I think Michigan does just enough to squeak by. Minnesota just doesn’t have the talent that Michigan has. I think Fleck is doing a good job, even though he’s a complete psychopath. He’ll have his team ready and they will put up a valiant effort. But the Wolverines are always going go have the talent advantage and talent wins out. Michigan wins in a close one.  (Michigan, 24-21) 

ESECPN GameDay:  Desmond – Michigan   Nick – Michigan   Pat – Michigan   Kirk – Minnesota   Caitlin Clark – Michigan

Final Score:  Minnesota 20   Michigan 14 

Cory:  Auburn bounced back from their close loss to Florida with an uninspired win over Vanderbilt last week. Tennessee, on the other, is coming off its first loss of the season after falling to Texas by three points. True freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon struggled a lot against the Longhorn defense, which really limited Tennessee’s offensive capability in that game. Auburn’s defense is not nearly as good so I expect him and the Volunteers to play much better this week. For Auburn, Byrum Brown has got to stop with the negative plays. He’s thrown five interceptions and been sacked 14 times already, and that kind of offense will not be good enough to keep up with Tennessee in this one.   Tennessee 28, Auburn 20

Dave:  Tennessee 21  Auburn 13 

Gregg:  The only way Tennessee losses this is if they look past the Tigers.  The home crowd is worth 3 points they say in Vegas so I will give the Volunteers the victory by 3.   Tennessee 24  Auburn 21  

Jason:  #17 Tennessee returns home to Neyland Stadium to face Auburn in a matchup that carries plenty of importance for both teams. The Volunteers are coming off a competitive 20-17 loss to #1 Texas, while Auburn enters at 3-1 after a dominant 42-15 win over Vanderbilt. Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon has thrown for 697 yards on the season, while Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown has passed for 893 passing yards with six TDs. Auburn’s defense could make things difficult for the Vols, with the Tigers ranking fourth in the SEC in tfls and third in the conference with five picks.

Tennessee will look to bounce back offensively after struggling to move the ball consistently against Texas and Auburn’s pressure could create problems for Brandon. The Tigers have also shown the ability to generate explosive plays with Brown, making this a game Tennessee cannot afford to overlook. Still, playing at home should give the Volunteers an advantage, and their defense should do enough to slow Auburn late.   Prediction: Tennessee 27, Auburn 23

Joe-S-U:  Tennessee over Auburn – Word has it there ‘taint no telephone bills on Rocky Top, so the Fighting Heupels can climb the phone pole, dial up Auburn, Alabama and ask when they plan on being relevant again.

John:  Auburn must really stink to be 3-1 in the mighty SEC and get no love from AP voters.  Vandy is the only other 3 win SEC team to be unranked, and their loss was to Auburn, so…  As long as Tennessee doesn’t have a Texas hangover, they should take care of business.  Helps that this one is in Knoxville.  Tennessee  38  Auburn 17 

Josh: Auburn coach Alex Golesh returns to Knoxville, where he previously served as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator. His Tigers improved to 3-1 by beating Vanderbilt, but their offense still needs more consistency from the running game and quarterback Byrum Brown. Auburn’s defense can make this interesting. The Tigers have accumulated 29 tackles for loss, ranking among the SEC’s most disruptive units. Tennessee presents a similar challenge on the other side, led by Xavier Gilliam’s four sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. Protecting freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon will be central to the Volunteers’ game plan. Tennessee’s 20-17 loss to top-ranked Texas demonstrated that the Volunteers can compete with elite opponents, even if their offense is still developing. Back at Neyland Stadium, their defense should create favorable field position and eventually wear Auburn down. Golesh’s return adds emotion to the matchup, but Tennessee possesses the better roster and the more reliable defense. A late Volunteers touchdown provides the cover. Tennessee 30, Auburn 20

Steven:  I’m not impressed with either of these squads. Tennessee probably should be out of the top 25, and probably be after this weekend. Auburn isn’t that great, but they have enough of a defense to stymie the Volunteers. Auburn pulls the upset 28-24.

Trout:  The Vols win, but I see the game coming down to the wire. Auburn can be feisty and Tennessee is never as good as advertised, so I see the game being low scoring and very close. Tennessee will be able to score late, and the Tigers won’t have the time to counter. Tennessee wins and keeps their playoff hopes alive.   (Tennessee, 17-14)

Final Score:  Tennessee 24   Auburn 14