Who to Root For?

So now that the playoff picture is really down to 5 teams, the Buckeyes hopes to make the playoff is still alive. We all wish that they could have taken care of the Wolverines, but if you still get a chance to win a national title, you will take it, and get three weeks for guys to get healthy. 

I am going to break down the 4 conference championship games starting with the ones that are most important to the least important for the Buckeyes chances. No disrespect to the ACC Championship game, but they will not be on this list as that game is for teams playing for the Orange Bowl, and are completely out of contention for the playoff. 

1. Pac-12 Championship – USC vs Utah

These two teams have played earlier in the year already at Utah, and are playing again because at the beginning of the season at Utah, and the Utes handed USC their one and only loss this season thanks to a 2 point conversion to take the lead 43-42 with 48 seconds left to go in the game. USC actually led as much as 21-7 going into the second quarter, but the Utes kept fighting back and kept themselves in the game. No one will question that USC has a good offense, but their defense is going to keep them in games or cost them a game, and for this one, it cost them. It is hard to beat a team two times in a season, but with USC relying solely on Caleb Williams, if the Utes can keep a spy on him, and their DB’s stay with the USC receivers, this could be a really close and interesting game. In my opinion, this is the only game that matters for the Buckeyes with a chance to make the playoff because USC is going in to the weekend with the same record at 11-1, and a loss would bring them to 11-2, and still with the same resume they had going in, with their best wins against 17th ranked UCLA, and 21st ranked Notre Dame. 

If USC wins: They will make the playoff, and will be any where between the 2 to 4 seed depending on how the other games shape out. Washington then would likely go to the Rose Bowl, and play Ohio State if Michigan wins, or Purdue they beat the Wolverines.

If Utah wins: They will go to the Rose Bowl as the PAC-12 Champion and will likely play Penn State as the Big Ten representative if Michigan also wins, or Purdue if they win. Ohio State would then slide the 4 seed. USC then would fall to the Cotton Bowl most likely against the winner of Tulane and UCF.

Rooting Interest: Utah Wins

2. Big 12 Championship – TCU vs Kansas State

This is another rematch game between two teams that played each other earlier in the season back on October 22nd and that game was at TCU. Kansas State had actually taken a strong lead before TCU answered with a touchdown to trail 28-17 going into halftime. TCU then stopped Kansas State from scoring in the second half and won 38-28. At the time, Kansas State was playing without one of their best players in Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez. The Horned Frogs won the yardage and turnover battle, but it was another one of their games where they fell behind and had to come back to win. TCU is looking to make their first ever College Football Playoff, and I am sure the bitterness from 2014 has not subsided, but you can be sure if there is a discussion if they lose and Oho State gets ahead of them, there will be a lot of noise coming from Fort Worth. I am in the group though that thinks even if TCU loses, they are still in the playoff, but would just remain as a 3 seed depending on the USC game, or drop to the 4 seed. But, the committee did have the Buckeyes ahead of TCU when they had the same record, so there is some thought that they would still value Ohio State’s resume vs TCU’s if they were to lose. So as a Buckeye fan, a TCU loss might help their chances. 

If TCU wins: They are a lock in the playoff, and will at worse be the 3 seed. Depending on if Michigan and Georgia’s outcomes for their games, those two might shuffle around or TCU could bump up to a 2 or 1 seed, but I think the committee still has some debate on how solid a team TCU is, but have 12 wins playing an extra week of games as a bonus I feel helps more than hurts them. Kansas State would likely play themselves out of a NY6 Bowl game with 3 losses. 

If Kansas State wins: They will win the Big 12 and play in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama or LSU if there are able to beat Georgia. TCU then will be at the fate of the committee if they are still seen as one of the best 4 teams in the country, and if not, then they will likely play the winner of Clemson and North Carolina in the Orange Bowl. My feeling still is that TCU is in though win or lose. 

Rooting Interest: Kansas State wins

3. Big Ten Championship – Michigan vs Purdue

Michigan is making their second straight appearance to Indianapolis after beating Ohio State for the second straight year, and will face Purdue, who is making their first ever Big Ten Championship Game appearance. It will be interesting to see if the stadium will be more Maize and Blue or Black and Gold since West Layfayette is a short drive from the Circle City, but I can bet both teams are happy to be there, and it should be an interesting game. In the scheme of it, Michigan has the head to head battle over the Buckeyes and I think win or lose, Michigan is a lock to make the playoff and could honestly fall anywhere between the 1 or 4 seed depending on how the other games go. What is at stake for Purdue is a chance to play in the Rose Bowl, and why this game is of interest for Ohio State fans. 

If Michigan wins: They will clinch their second straight Playoff appearance, and will at worst be the 2 seed in the CFP, most likely playing in the Fiesta Bowl against TCU or USC, depending on how their games go. If Georgia were to also lose, I could see Michigan wanting to play in Atlanta for convenience in terms of travel, but either location for them has no geographical advantage. A loss for Purdue would likely send them to one of the lower tier Big Ten bowl games like the Outback or Capital One Bowl.

If Purdue wins: They will clinch a spot in the Rose Bowl, and will likely face either Utah or Washington, depending on how the PAC-12 Championship Game plays out. Michigan would likely be in the playoff, and would be anywhere between 2 or 4 depending on the other games play out. This would mean the Buckeyes would get a NY6 Bowl potentially in the Cotton Bowl against Tulane or UCF, the Sugar Bowl against Alabama or LSU, or the Orange Bowl against Clemson or North Carolina. 

Rooting Interest: Michigan wins.

4. SEC Championship – Georgia vs LSU

This is the last game that would really have any impact for the Buckeye’s and it has more to do with a potential opponent. Georgia and Michigan feel like the most certain locks and the SEC carries a lot of weight with the committee, especially with how successful they have been in the playoff era. Georgia also has the benefit of being the defending national champions. LSU looked to be primed to be the first 2 loss team to make the College Football Playoff, but their loss to Texas A&M eliminated any chance they had to make the CFP this year. LSU’s best bet is to win so they can lock a spot in the Sugar Bowl, and a loss would likely send them to the Capital One or Outback Bowl. 

If Georgia wins: They will clinch the top seed in the college football playoff because their opponent is ranked, and they will play the 4 seed in the Peach Bowl to play in Atlanta for the second straight game. Their possible opponents would be Michigan, TCU, USC or Ohio State. 

If LSU wins: The Tigers will clinch a spot in the Sugar Bowl, and could play Kansas State, Ohio State, or potentially Washington. Georgia is still in with the loss, and I don’t seem them falling farther than 3rd place. 

Rooting Interest: Georgia Wins.