The Big Picture

Ohio State’s offense should be the strength of this team.

Sayin returns after completing 77 percent of his passes for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns during his first season as the starter. He helped the Buckeyes win 12 consecutive regular-season games and became a Heisman Trophy finalist, but his final two performances also left the program with unfinished business.

His challenge in 2026 is no longer proving that he can play quarterback at Ohio State. It is showing that he can take control of the biggest games on the schedule.

Smith remains the centerpiece of everything. Defenses will roll coverages toward him, devote extra defenders to his side of the field and spend entire weeks trying to prevent him from taking over. That attention should create opportunities for Brandon Inniss, Bo Jackson and the rest of an offense that will be asked to become more physical and adaptable under Arthur Smith.

The transition at offensive coordinator is one of the season’s defining questions. Arthur Smith’s background suggests Ohio State will feature a more varied running game, heavier personnel packages and increased use of play action. The Buckeyes do not need to abandon the explosive passing attack that makes them dangerous, but they must develop an offense capable of winning when explosive plays are temporarily taken away.

Defensively, Patricia faces another significant rebuild. Only three starters return on that side of the ball, and Ohio State will be relying on a combination of developing veterans, talented transfers and younger players being elevated into larger roles.

The Buckeyes may not immediately resemble the finished defensive product they became last season. Fortunately, the schedule provides one game for the new group to settle in before one of the year’s biggest tests.

Sept. 5: Ball State

Ohio State’s season begins with what should be a comfortable afternoon against Ball State.

The Cardinals went 4-8 in Mike Uremovich’s first season and return only four starters. Quarterback Keldric Luster won the starting job despite entering the season with only 12 collegiate passing attempts.

The primary question will not be whether Ohio State wins. It will be how quickly the Buckeyes look comfortable under Arthur Smith and how many defensive questions can be answered before the trip to Texas.

Ohio State should use the opener to establish its offensive identity, evaluate the rebuilt defense and create meaningful snaps for younger players. The coaches will want the starting units tested without needing them on the field late in the second half.

The afternoon will also carry additional significance with Jim Tressel entering the Ohio Stadium Ring of Honor.

Prediction: Ohio State 49, Ball State 7
Record: 1-0

Sept. 12: at No. 5 Texas

The first true test arrives immediately.

Ohio State defeated Texas 14-7 in Columbus last season, controlling the game defensively and holding Arch Manning and the Longhorns out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. This time, the Buckeyes must travel to Austin for a prime-time rematch with ESPN’s College GameDay in attendance.

Manning returns after throwing for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding 10 rushing scores in 2025. Texas has surrounded him with another talented collection of skill players, including Auburn transfer Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V.

The biggest concern for Ohio State is the timing. A rebuilt defense will go from facing Ball State to defending Manning and one of the deepest receiving groups in the country. Texas defensive end Colin Simmons will also provide an immediate examination for an Ohio State offensive line that struggled at crucial moments late last season.

This game should tell us plenty about Sayin’s growth. He will not necessarily need to win a shootout, but the Buckeyes probably cannot expect to escape Austin with only 14 points.

Ohio State can win this game, especially if Bo Jackson and the running game prevent Texas from turning its pass rush loose. Still, the combination of an experienced quarterback, a hostile environment and Ohio State’s defensive turnover makes this the most difficult game on the schedule.

Prediction: Texas 27, Ohio State 24
Record: 1-1

Sept. 19: Kent State

Following an emotional trip to Austin, Ohio State returns home for another game against a rebuilding Mid-American Conference program.

Kent State showed improvement in 2025 but remains overmatched in this matchup. The Buckeyes should be able to control both lines of scrimmage and gradually pull away regardless of what happened against Texas.

The focus will be on eliminating any mistakes exposed the previous week. If Ohio State loses in Austin, this becomes an opportunity to reset without allowing one September result to define the season. If the Buckeyes win at Texas, Ryan Day’s challenge will be bringing the team back to earth.

Either way, Ohio State should handle its business.

Prediction: Ohio State 52, Kent State 10
Record: 2-1

Sept. 26: Illinois

Big Ten play begins with Illinois visiting Ohio Stadium.

Bret Bielema has built Illinois into a physical, disciplined program capable of making more talented teams uncomfortable. The Fighting Illini are unlikely to win a pure talent contest against Ohio State, but they will try to shorten the game, run the football and force the Buckeyes to earn their possessions.

This is the type of matchup Arthur Smith was hired to handle. Ohio State cannot become impatient if Illinois successfully limits possessions during the first half. The Buckeyes must remain committed to the running game and avoid giving the Illini short fields through turnovers.

Illinois should provide a better test than Ohio State’s two MAC opponents, but the Buckeyes have too much firepower for the Illini to match for four quarters.

Prediction: Ohio State 34, Illinois 13
Record: 3-1

Oct. 3: at No. 22 Iowa

There are few environments in college football better at turning an ordinary afternoon into four quarters of discomfort than Kinnick Stadium.

Ohio State does not need a reminder of what can happen in Iowa City. The Buckeyes’ 55-24 loss there in 2017 remains one of the most unexpected defeats of the Ryan Day–Urban Meyer era.

This Iowa team enters the season ranked No. 22 and should once again be built around defense, special teams and field position. The Hawkeyes will attempt to keep the game close long enough for one turnover, special-teams play or defensive score to change the outcome.

For Ohio State, patience will be essential. The Buckeyes cannot spend the afternoon chasing big plays or allowing a slow start to create frustration. Sayin must be willing to take underneath completions, and Ohio State needs to trust that its superior depth will eventually create separation.

It may not be comfortable, but the Buckeyes should survive.

Prediction: Ohio State 27, Iowa 16
Record: 4-1

Oct. 10: Maryland

Maryland quarterback Malik Washington is talented enough to make this more interesting than the preseason rankings suggest.

Washington threw for 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns as a freshman while adding 303 yards on the ground. He gives Mike Locksley a dynamic quarterback around whom Maryland can build its offense.

The Terrapins return defensive contributors such as Sidney Stewart, Daniel Wingate and Jamare Glasker, but the defense struggled throughout a 4-8 season. That is a problem when facing Sayin, Smith and Ohio State’s collection of playmakers.

Maryland may create a few explosive plays, especially with Ohio State potentially looking ahead to Indiana. It is much harder to envision the Terrapins producing enough stops to stay with the Buckeyes for four quarters.

Prediction: Ohio State 42, Maryland 20
Record: 5-1

Oct. 17: at No. 6 Indiana

Even typing “defending national champion Indiana” still feels unusual. It is also entirely deserved.

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers finished 16-0, defeated Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game and completed their remarkable run by winning the College Football Playoff. They now face the challenge of replacing Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and eight NFL draft picks.

Cignetti attacked those losses through the transfer portal. Former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover arrives with more than 9,600 career passing yards, and Indiana added running back Turbo Richard and receivers Nick Marsh and Shazz Preston. The Hoosiers also return wide receiver Charlie Becker and All-American tackle Carter Smith.

Ohio State will not be walking into Bloomington expecting the old Indiana. This has become one of the most important games on the Big Ten schedule and a legitimate championship rematch.

The Buckeyes should have the talent advantage, but Indiana’s structure and preparation make the Hoosiers dangerous. The difference may be Ohio State’s familiarity with Cignetti’s system and an entire offseason spent remembering the 13-10 loss in Indianapolis.

In another close game, Sayin and Smith make enough plays late to return the favor.

Prediction: Ohio State 28, Indiana 24
Record: 6-1

Oct. 24: Bye Week

The timing of Ohio State’s bye could hardly be better.

The Buckeyes will have completed seven consecutive games, including trips to Texas, Iowa and Indiana. They will need the additional recovery time before flying across the country to play USC and then returning home to face Oregon.

Oct. 31: at No. 14 USC

Ohio State’s Halloween trip to Los Angeles has every ingredient necessary for a dangerous game.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava returns after passing for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. The Trojans also bring back four offensive-line starters and a promising backfield led by King Miller and Waymond Jordan.

Lincoln Riley’s offenses rarely struggle to generate yards and points. The larger question is whether USC can finally play enough defense to become a serious championship contender.

Former TCU head coach Gary Patterson takes over as defensive coordinator and brings decades of experience with the 4-2-5 system. Ohio State should not expect the same vulnerable USC defense that has followed Riley through much of his tenure.

The Buckeyes have a bye before the trip, which helps, but traveling to Los Angeles for a Halloween matchup against an experienced quarterback remains a difficult assignment. Ohio State’s running game could be the deciding factor. If the Buckeyes control possession and prevent the game from turning into a track meet, their depth should take over late.

Prediction: Ohio State 35, USC 30
Record: 7-1

Nov. 7: No. 2 Oregon

The biggest home game of the season—at least until Michigan arrives—brings the preseason No. 2 team to Columbus.

Oregon has developed into one of the Big Ten’s premier programs under Dan Lanning. The Ducks recruit at an elite level, use the transfer portal aggressively and have enough speed to challenge Ohio State across the field.

This will be the first meeting since Ohio State overwhelmed Oregon in the 2025 Rose Bowl, racing to a 34-0 advantage before winning 41-21. That result will provide Oregon with no shortage of motivation.

Quarterback Dante Moore returns as one of the country’s leading Heisman Trophy candidates. He will face a difficult environment and an Ohio State defense that should be much more settled in November than it was during the opening weeks.

The schedule favors the Buckeyes slightly. Oregon must travel across the country, while Ohio State returns home after its West Coast trip. The atmosphere inside Ohio Stadium should rival any regular-season game of the Day era.

This feels like the moment when the Buckeyes’ offensive experience makes the difference. Sayin delivers one of his best performances of the season, and Ohio State survives a potential Big Ten Championship preview.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Oregon 27
Record: 8-1

Nov. 14: Northwestern

The emotional challenge will be recovering from Oregon with Michigan only two weeks away.

Northwestern will arrive in Columbus under former Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, adding an interesting storyline to what should otherwise be one of the more manageable conference games on the schedule.

Kelly knows Day and Ohio State’s personnel well, but familiarity cannot erase the talent gap. The Buckeyes should take control early and use the second half to rest starters before two important rivalry-week preparations begin.

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Northwestern 13
Record: 9-1

Nov. 21: at Nebraska

A late-November trip to Lincoln should not be dismissed.

Nebraska has one of the Big Ten’s best home environments, and the Cornhuskers have consistently played Ohio State closer than their overall records would suggest. The danger is obvious: Ohio State will be coming off two major home games and will have Michigan waiting the following week.

This is a test of maturity more than talent.

If the Buckeyes arrive focused, they should control the matchup. If they turn their attention toward Michigan too early, Nebraska is capable of keeping the game close deep into the fourth quarter.

Ohio State’s leaders—including captains Sayin, Smith, Inniss, Austin Siereveld, Kenyatta Jackson Jr., Payton Pierce and Jaylen McClain—will need to keep the team centered on the immediate assignment.

Expect some nervous moments before the Buckeyes create separation.

Prediction: Ohio State 30, Nebraska 17
Record: 10-1

Nov. 28: No. 16 Michigan

There is no such thing as an ordinary Ohio State–Michigan game, but this one carries another layer of significance.

The Buckeyes ended their four-game losing streak in the rivalry with a convincing 27-9 victory in Ann Arbor last season. That win removed one enormous weight from the program, but it did not change the annual expectations. Beating Michigan once does not finish the job. It resets it.

Michigan begins a new chapter under Kyle Whittingham, one of the most respected coaches in college football. Sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood remains the centerpiece of the Wolverines’ future and should be more comfortable after an uneven freshman season.

The Wolverines will attempt to return the rivalry to the formula that worked during their winning streak: control the line of scrimmage, limit possessions and force Ohio State to remain patient.

This time, however, the game is in Columbus. Ohio State has the more proven quarterback, the best player on the field in Smith and an offense that should be better equipped to win physically than it was in previous seasons.

Michigan makes it uncomfortable. Ohio State finishes it.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan 20
Final Regular-Season Record: 11-1

Final Prediction

An 11-1 record against this schedule would represent an excellent regular season.

Ohio State has six games against preseason-ranked opponents and five road trips totaling more than 4,400 miles. The Buckeyes must face four ranked teams away from Columbus and play USC and Oregon on consecutive Saturdays.

That is not a schedule built for perfection.

It is, however, a schedule built to prepare a championship team.

The deciding factor will be whether Ohio State’s defense develops quickly enough to complement an offense that should rank among the nation’s best. If Patricia can rebuild the unit by October—and if Arthur Smith helps the Buckeyes become more consistent in short-yardage situations and late-game possessions—there is no clear ceiling for this team.

Our prediction is one regular-season loss, a return to the Big Ten Championship Game and another appearance in the College Football Playoff.

From there, the season will be judged by the same standard that follows every Ohio State team with this much talent: whether the Buckeyes are still playing when the national championship is decided.

Buckeye50 Season Predictions

• Regular-season record: 11-1
• Big Ten record: 9-0
  Most difficult game: at Texas
• Most important game: Michigan
• Potential trap game: at Nebraska
• Statement win: Oregon
• Offensive MVP: Jeremiah Smith
• Defensive MVP: Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
• Breakout candidate: Payton Pierce
• Postseason prediction: Big Ten Championship Game and College Football Playoff berth

Photo Credit: Joseph Maiorana / Imagn Images