Ohio State’s first loss of the season was not painful because the Buckeyes were outclassed. It was painful because they controlled almost the entire game and still allowed it to slip away.

The Buckeyes carried a 23–3 lead into the fourth quarter at Texas before surrendering three consecutive touchdowns in a 24–23 loss. The offense managed only three second-half points, a missed field goal left the door open and an interception ended Ohio State’s final opportunity. Julian Sayin still passed for 278 yards, while Jeremiah Smith finished with eight receptions for 164 yards and a touchdown, but their production became a footnote to a collapse that dropped Ohio State from No. 1 to No. 6 in the AP poll.

Kent State now comes to Columbus at the right time for an Ohio State team that needs to correct its mistakes, rebuild some confidence and prove it can maintain its standard for four quarters. The final score should not be in much doubt, especially with the Buckeyes entering as a heavy favorite. The more important question is what Ohio State does with the opportunity.

Here are three bold predictions for Saturday’s in-state matchup.

1. Ohio State rushes for more than 300 yards and scores five touchdowns on the ground

Arthur Smith has spent the opening weeks attempting to establish a more physical identity for this offense, but the rushing attack has not yet consistently controlled a game from beginning to end. There have been explosive plays and encouraging moments, but also stretches in which the blocking, timing and ability to create dependable yardage on early downs have fallen short.

That changes against Kent State.

Our first prediction is that Ohio State rushes for more than 300 yards and scores five touchdowns on the ground. Bo Jackson will lead the way with at least 125 yards and two scores, but the production will extend beyond the starter. The Buckeyes should be able to rotate multiple running backs, evaluate different offensive-line combinations and continue running effectively after the game reaches the reserve-heavy portion of the afternoon.

This needs to be more than an inflated total created by one or two long runs. Ohio State should be able to line up, move the line of scrimmage and consistently create four or five yards before asking its backs to make something happen. The Buckeyes must become a team that can run when the opponent knows the run is coming, especially when protecting a fourth-quarter lead.

Saturday presents an opportunity to begin building that identity.

2. Matt Patricia’s defense records a shutout and scores a touchdown of its own

For three quarters in Austin, Ohio State’s defense looked capable of carrying the Buckeyes to one of the most impressive road victories of the season. Then Texas scored touchdowns on all three of its fourth-quarter possessions, turning what had been a dominant performance into a painful lesson about finishing.

Our second prediction is that the defense responds by keeping Kent State out of the end zone, off the scoreboard entirely and then contributing points of its own.

We are calling for an Ohio State defensive touchdown, at least five sacks and a shutout.

Matt Patricia should have the freedom to rotate heavily and give younger players extended opportunities, but that is what makes the shutout portion of this prediction bold. Once the starters leave, maintaining communication, tackling discipline and assignment integrity can become much more difficult. One busted coverage or missed tackle could be enough to end the shutout.

The Buckeyes cannot erase what happened at Texas by overwhelming Kent State, but they can show that the fourth quarter in Austin did not fracture the defense’s confidence. The starters will set the tone, and the reserves will finish the job.

3. Ohio State scores at least 21 points in the third quarter

Ohio State’s biggest problem at Texas was not its start. The Buckeyes built a 20–3 halftime lead and appeared to have control of the game. The problem was their inability to respond after Texas adjusted and began creating momentum.

The Ohio State offense scored only three points after halftime. Drives stalled, the rushing attack struggled to consistently move the chains and the Buckeyes became increasingly conservative as their lead began to disappear.

That makes the third quarter one of the most important portions of Saturday’s game—even if the Buckeyes already hold a comfortable advantage.

Our final bold prediction is that Ohio State scores at least 21 points in the third quarter. Whether Julian Sayin remains in the game for the entire period or the offense turns to its backups, the Buckeyes will come out of halftime aggressively and score touchdowns on their first three possessions.

This prediction is less about running up the score and more about demonstrating the ability to make halftime adjustments. Ohio State needs to show that it can identify how an opponent has changed its approach, answer those changes and continue attacking rather than simply attempting to protect a lead.

If the Buckeyes enter halftime ahead by four or five touchdowns, it would be easy for the afternoon to turn into an extended scrimmage. After what happened in Austin, however, Ohio State should have no interest in sleepwalking through another second half.

Final Prediction

Kent State will encounter an Ohio State team that is disappointed, embarrassed and eager to move forward. That does not guarantee a perfect performance, but it should create a focused one.

The Buckeyes will establish the running game early, Sayin will produce several explosive completions without needing to carry the offense, and the defense will spend most of the afternoon playing on Kent State’s side of the field. Most importantly, Ohio State will continue playing with urgency after halftime.

A dominant victory will not erase the Texas loss or answer every question surrounding this team. It can, however, be the first step toward making sure the same mistakes are not repeated.

Photo Credit: KentStateSports.com