Ohio State closed its nonconference schedule with the type of decisive victory expected against Kent State. The Buckeyes scored on their first four possessions, built a 35–0 halftime lead and eventually finished off a 59–3 victory. Julian Sayin completed 18 of 22 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns, Jeremiah Smith became Ohio State’s career receiving-yardage leader, and several younger Buckeyes received meaningful opportunities before the afternoon was over.

It was a needed response after the collapse at Texas, but it did not answer every question. Ohio State converted only one of its eight third-down opportunities, averaged 3.8 yards per rushing attempt and generated only one sack against Kent State. Those shortcomings were easy to overlook in a 56-point victory. They will become more important as the Buckeyes begin Big Ten play.

Illinois arrives in Columbus with the same 2–1 record as Ohio State after defeating Southern Illinois 48–10. Quarterback Katin Houser passed for 305 yards and two touchdowns in the win, giving Matt Patricia’s secondary something legitimate to prepare for. The Fighting Illini are still substantial underdogs, but they represent a meaningful step up from Kent State and an opportunity for the Buckeyes to begin conference play by showing measurable improvement. 

Predicting Ohio State to retain the Illibuck would not be especially daring. Here are three more specific predictions for Saturday’s game.

1. Ohio State converts at least 60 percent of its third downs

Ohio State’s 1-for-8 performance on third down against Kent State was the strangest number in an otherwise dominant box score. The Buckeyes rarely needed third down to finish their early possessions, but when they encountered it, the offense struggled to stay on the field.

Our first prediction is that Ohio State responds by converting at least 60 percent of its third-down attempts against Illinois.

That is a significant jump, especially against a stronger defense, but the Buckeyes have the pieces to make it happen. Sayin has generally been accurate when given a defined read, Jeremiah Smith remains the most difficult individual matchup on the field, and Brandon Inniss, Max Klare and Ohio State’s other receiving options can punish a defense that devotes too much attention to Smith.

The biggest improvement must come before third down. Ohio State needs more productive runs and efficient early-down passes so Sayin is not repeatedly asked to rescue third-and-long situations. Arthur Smith should also be willing to use the middle of the field, involve Klare as a dependable chain-mover and allow Sayin to make decisions at the line based on the coverage Illinois presents.

At least three of those conversions will extend touchdown drives, including one in the second half when Illinois has an opportunity to regain momentum.

2. Bo Jackson rushes for 125 yards as Ohio State surpasses 200 as a team

The running game showed flashes against Kent State, but the overall efficiency still did not match the final score. Ohio State’s first-team backs were productive, yet the Buckeyes finished at only 3.8 yards per attempt. Against a team Ohio State physically overmatched, the offensive line did not consistently create the movement expected.

Our second prediction is that Bo Jackson records the first 100-yard rushing performance of Ohio State’s season—and then keeps going.

Jackson finishes with at least 125 yards and a touchdown, while the Buckeyes collectively surpass 200 rushing yards. Unlike some of Ohio State’s earlier totals, this performance will not be built around one run dramatically changing the average. The Buckeyes will find consistent success between the tackles, remain committed to the run after halftime and begin showing the physical identity Arthur Smith was brought to Columbus to strengthen.

Illinois will test Ohio State’s blocking with more size, discipline and experience than Kent State could offer. That makes this an important evaluation for an offensive line that has not yet played with enough consistency. The Buckeyes do not need to dominate every snap, but they must begin producing dependable yardage when the defense knows a run is likely.

Jackson will provide the explosive moment, breaking a run of at least 30 yards, but his ability to turn minimal openings into four- and five-yard gains will matter just as much.

3. Ohio State intercepts Katin Houser twice and holds Illinois to 13 points or fewer

Houser enters the game with some confidence after passing for 305 yards against Southern Illinois. Bret Bielema will attempt to create manageable throws, stay balanced and keep his quarterback away from obvious passing situations where Ohio State’s defense can dictate the matchup.

Our third prediction is that Patricia’s defense disrupts that plan by intercepting Houser twice and holding Illinois to no more than 13 points.

Ohio State did not create consistent pressure against Kent State, finishing with only one sack despite controlling nearly every other aspect of the game. The Buckeyes need more disruption from their defensive front without becoming overly dependent on extra rushers. If Caden Curry, Kayden McDonald and the rest of the front can make Houser uncomfortable with four-man pressure, Patricia will have greater freedom to disguise coverages and force the Illinois quarterback to hesitate.

One interception will come from that disguised coverage, with Houser believing he has an open throwing window before an Ohio State defensive back closes it. The other will be created by pressure and produce a short field for the offense.

Illinois will move the football at times and is capable of producing more resistance than either Ball State or Kent State. The difference will come near the red zone, where Ohio State will force the Fighting Illini to settle for field goals instead of allowing touchdowns.

Final Prediction

Illinois should provide a more useful evaluation than Ohio State received against Kent State. The Fighting Illini have a veteran head coach, a quarterback coming off a 300-yard performance and enough size to test whether the Buckeyes’ progress along the offensive line is real.

That may keep the game competitive through the opening quarter, but Ohio State has too many matchup advantages for Illinois to sustain that resistance. Sayin will remain efficient, Jackson will give the offense its best rushing performance of the season, and the defense will create the turnovers that prevent the Fighting Illini from applying serious second-half pressure.

The Buckeyes retain the Illibuck, win their Big Ten opener and move to 3–1 with a performance that is more meaningful than the final margin alone.

Ohio State 38, Illinois 13

Ohio State and Illinois kick off at noon Saturday, September 26, at Ohio Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on FOX.

Which prediction are you buying, and which one is a little too bold? Give us your best prediction for the Buckeyes’ Big Ten opener. Go Bucks!

Photo Credit: Fighting Illini