Ohio State has already experienced one hostile road environment this season. Saturday’s trip to Kinnick Stadium will present a completely different test.

Texas wanted to turn its meeting with the Buckeyes into a showcase between national championship contenders. Iowa would probably prefer to remove as much beauty as possible. The Hawkeyes want to shrink the game, win the field-position battle, force Ohio State to sustain long drives and create enough fourth-quarter tension for the Kinnick crowd to become a factor.

That formula has carried No. 14 Iowa to a 4–0 start. The Hawkeyes trailed Michigan late last Saturday before Hank Brown led a 91-yard drive and connected with Reece Vander Zee for a 16-yard touchdown with two seconds remaining, completing a 20–19 upset in Ann Arbor. Brown finished with 227 passing yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns, while Iowa also received a 99-yard kickoff-return score from Braeden Jackson.

Ohio State enters the matchup at 3–1 after defeating Illinois 42–19. Julian Sayin completed 27 of 36 passes for 367 yards and four touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith produced a career-best 12 receptions, 217 yards and four scores. The Buckeyes converted eight of 12 third downs and finished every red-zone trip with a touchdown, but the defense allowed 462 yards—including 199 on the ground.

The Buckeyes are favored by approximately two touchdowns, but winning at Kinnick rarely feels as simple as the point spread suggests. Here are three bold predictions for Ohio State’s first ranked Big Ten road game of the season.

1. Ja’Kobi Jackson becomes Ohio State’s first 100-yard rusher of the season

Ohio State’s passing game looked ready for any defense in the country against Illinois. The running game remained more of a work in progress.

The Buckeyes finished with 151 rushing yards at 4.7 yards per attempt, with Ja’Kobi Jackson gaining 56 yards on 10 carries and Bo Jackson adding 53 on 11 attempts. Those are respectable numbers, but Ohio State has not yet shown that it can consistently control a quality opponent with its offensive line and backfield.

Our first prediction is that Ja’Kobi Jackson changes that by rushing for at least 100 yards and one touchdown against Iowa.

This will not be an afternoon built around repeated explosive runs. Phil Parker’s defense is too disciplined and too comfortable forcing offenses to earn every yard. Jackson’s production will come through patience, contact balance and Ohio State’s willingness to stay committed when the first few carries produce only modest gains.

His most important work may come in the second half. If Ohio State enters the fourth quarter with a lead, Arthur Smith cannot allow the offense to become passive or one-dimensional. The Buckeyes must be able to run into a loaded box, move the chains and prevent Iowa from creating extra possessions through punts and field position.

With Bo Jackson’s status worth monitoring after a shoulder issue, Ja’Kobi could receive his largest workload of the season. We are calling for him to turn that opportunity into Ohio State’s first individual 100-yard rushing performance of 2026.

2. Ohio State holds Iowa below 100 rushing yards and intercepts Hank Brown for the first time this season

The 42–19 score against Illinois suggested a comfortable defensive afternoon. The underlying numbers told a more complicated story.

Illinois rushed for 199 yards and averaged six yards per carry, allowing the Fighting Illini to sustain drives and keep Ohio State’s defense on the field. That becomes a much more dangerous problem against Iowa, where Kirk Ferentz will gladly lean on the running game, shorten the contest and wait for the Buckeyes to make a mistake.

Our second prediction is that Ohio State responds by holding Iowa below 100 rushing yards and forcing Hank Brown into his first interception of the season.

Brown has completed 68 percent of his passes through four games without throwing an interception. He displayed legitimate poise on Iowa’s final drive at Michigan, but Ohio State must put him in a different situation than the one Illinois created for Katin Houser. If the Buckeyes win on early downs and force Brown into obvious passing situations, Matt Patricia can disguise coverages and ask the defensive front to attack rather than react.

The pressure remains a concern. Ohio State has recorded only seven sacks through four games, and Ryan Day has acknowledged the need for more production from the defensive ends. The Buckeyes do not necessarily need a six-sack afternoon, but they need enough disruption to prevent Brown from operating comfortably.

The interception will come in the second half, when Brown attempts to fit a throw to Vander Zee against disguised coverage. Ohio State will turn that takeaway into points and prevent Iowa from building another late-game comeback.

3. Jeremiah Smith finishes below 100 yards—but three Buckeyes catch touchdown passes

Predicting Jeremiah Smith to finish below 100 receiving yards after his performance against Illinois might be the boldest call of the week.

Smith has become Ohio State’s career receiving-yardage leader, the first Buckeye to surpass 3,000 yards and, after his four-touchdown performance, the current betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy. Iowa will not stop him with a single defensive back, and the Hawkeyes will not enter Saturday pretending otherwise.

They will shade coverage toward Smith, keep a safety over the top and challenge Ohio State to win elsewhere. Our prediction is that the strategy keeps Smith below 100 yards for the first time in three games—but does not keep the Buckeyes out of the end zone.

Sayin will throw three touchdown passes to three different receivers, with at least two going to players other than Smith.

Brandon Inniss is the best candidate to benefit from the attention Smith receives, particularly on third down and from the slot. Max Klare should also have opportunities against Iowa’s linebackers and safeties, while Carnell Tate, Devin McCuin or another member of the receiving rotation could find space when the Hawkeyes roll their coverage toward No. 4.

Smith will still make an impact. He will attract coverage, move defenders before the snap and produce at least one explosive reception. His biggest contribution, however, may be the room he creates for everyone around him.

This is the week Ohio State proves that concentrating resources on Smith does not solve the larger problem presented by Sayin and the Buckeyes’ passing game.

Final Prediction

Iowa will make Ohio State uncomfortable. The Hawkeyes will create poor field position, generate at least one important special-teams play and keep the game close enough for Kinnick Stadium to remain involved well into the second half.

The difference will be Ohio State’s ability to win without relying entirely on Smith. Ja’Kobi Jackson will give the Buckeyes the steady rushing performance they have been searching for, Sayin will remain patient against Iowa’s coverage structure and Patricia’s defense will respond to its problems against Illinois by taking away the Hawkeyes’ running game.

Iowa will not disappear quietly, but the Buckeyes will control the fourth quarter and leave Iowa City with their best win of the season.

Ohio State 27, Iowa 17

Ohio State and Iowa kick off at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, October 3, at Kinnick Stadium. The game will air nationally on CBS. 

Photo Credit: Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Cit, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect