Ohio State moved to No. 2 in the country without taking a snap during its open week, but the ranking is not the most important change surrounding the Buckeyes. When Ohio State walks into the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Halloween night, it will do so without Julian Sayin and with a first-time starting quarterback leading an offense that is still trying to solve its protection and rushing inconsistencies.

That makes USC dangerous regardless of what happened Saturday night in Madison.

The Trojans fell out of the rankings after a 24–7 loss to Wisconsin in which they surrendered five sacks, threw two interceptions and finished with minus-17 rushing yards. USC is now 6–2 overall and 3–2 in the Big Ten, but this remains a talented roster coached by Lincoln Riley, playing in a sold-out Coliseum with an opportunity to disrupt Ohio State’s championship pursuit. The Trojans no longer have an undefeated season or national ranking to protect. That may allow them to play even more aggressively against an inexperienced quarterback.

Ohio State, meanwhile, enters at 6–1 and 4–0 in conference play after its 19–15 victory at Indiana. That win ended the Hoosiers’ 22-game winning streak and proved that the Buckeyes can finish a close game on the road. It also exposed the issues Ohio State must correct. The Buckeyes rushed for only 78 yards, allowed four sacks and threw two interceptions before Sayin injured his throwing arm in the fourth quarter.

Ryan Day and Arthur Smith have had two weeks to rebuild the offense around either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair. The Buckeyes do not need their new quarterback to become Sayin immediately. They need him to protect the football, distribute it to the playmakers around him and allow Ohio State’s defense to control the terms of the game.

Here are three bold predictions for Ohio State’s Halloween night matchup with USC.

1. Luke Fahey Starts, Throws for More Than 200 Yards and Does Not Commit a Turnover

The quarterback competition may remain open throughout game week, but Fahey entered the open date ahead of St. Clair and was the quarterback called upon when Sayin left the Indiana game. That continuity will matter enough for him to earn the first start of his career.

Fahey has completed nine of 13 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns this season, although almost all of that production came after the outcome had already been decided. Nothing he has experienced will resemble a sold-out Coliseum during a nationally televised game with Ohio State’s championship goals resting on every possession.

That is exactly why the offensive plan must meet him halfway. Ohio State will use quick throws, movement passes and clearly defined reads to prevent USC from attacking a stationary target. Jeremiah Smith will receive a few early touches, Brandon Inniss will become an important option in the middle of the field and Bo Jackson will give Fahey an outlet when the Trojans bring pressure.

There will be conservative moments, but Ohio State cannot protect Fahey by repeatedly placing him in third-and-long. The Buckeyes will allow him to throw on early downs, and he will reward that trust by completing at least 65 percent of his passes for more than 200 yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, he will not throw an interception or lose a fumble.

Fahey will not look like a finished product, and there may be a few missed opportunities. What he will demonstrate is composure. He will take the available completion, throw the ball away when a play collapses and refuse to give USC the short field that could turn an upset attempt into genuine belief.

2. Jeremiah Smith Breaks the Big Ten Touchdown Record—and Scores Twice

Jeremiah Smith enters the USC game with 39 career touchdown receptions, tied with Michigan’s Braylon Edwards for the Big Ten record. His next touchdown will give him the record outright, adding another milestone to a season in which he has already become Ohio State’s career leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.

He will not make the new quarterback wait long.

USC will expect Fahey to look toward No. 4 whenever the picture becomes uncomfortable. The Trojans will bracket Smith, roll a safety in his direction and attempt to make an inexperienced quarterback beat them elsewhere. Ohio State can use that attention against USC by moving Smith around the formation instead of allowing the defense to identify his location before every snap.

Smith’s first touchdown will come during the opening half on a red-zone throw that breaks the conference record. His second will arrive after halftime, when USC becomes aggressive and leaves him isolated long enough for Fahey to take his chance down the field.

This prediction is about more than two impressive catches. Smith can make the offense easier to operate through his route precision, communication and ability to turn a defined matchup into a safe decision. Ohio State should not force him the ball into double coverage, but it should build enough simple opportunities into the plan that its best player remains the new quarterback’s best resource.

Smith will finish with at least eight receptions, more than 100 yards and two touchdowns. By the end of Halloween night, the Big Ten receiving-touchdown record will belong to him alone.

3. Ohio State Records Five Sacks, Forces Three Turnovers and Holds USC Below 17 Points

Wisconsin provided Ohio State with a clear blueprint for disrupting USC. Jayden Maiava completed 31 passes against the Badgers, but none gained more than 15 yards. He was sacked five times, threw two interceptions and spent the evening trying to carry an offense that could not establish a credible rushing threat.

Ohio State’s defense is built to apply similar pressure without recklessly sacrificing the secondary. Matt Patricia can disguise coverage, let the defensive front compress the pocket and force Maiava to remain patient. If the Buckeyes tackle the short completions and eliminate USC’s yards after the catch, the Trojans will eventually face the third-and-long situations that allow the pass rush to become more aggressive.

Jaylen McClain will continue his disruptive run after producing the game-sealing strip-sack at Indiana, while Eddrick Houston and the defensive front will prevent Maiava from consistently stepping forward in the pocket. USC will find a few completions and produce one touchdown drive, but it will not rediscover the explosive offense that carried it through the opening portion of the season.

Ohio State will match Wisconsin’s five sacks and improve upon its turnover production. The Buckeyes will intercept Maiava twice, recover one fumble and hold USC below 17 points. One of those takeaways will come inside Ohio State territory, preventing the Trojans from turning a rare promising drive into points.

The Buckeyes’ defense does not need to shut USC out. It needs to keep the game from becoming a shootout while Fahey settles into his first start. That unit has repeatedly protected Ohio State’s offense from its own difficult stretches, and it will do so again in Los Angeles.

Final Prediction

Ohio State 24, USC 13

USC’s loss at Wisconsin does not make this an automatic victory. The Trojans will be back at home, the Coliseum is sold out and Riley will have an entire week to design pressure and coverage looks for a first-time starting quarterback. Ohio State should expect USC to attack early and treat every possession as an opportunity to make Fahey uncomfortable.

The Buckeyes are still the more complete team. Their defense can control the game without asking the offense to score 35 points, Smith gives Fahey the best security blanket in college football and the open week allowed Day and Smith to create a plan for the quarterback they have rather than the quarterback they lost.

Ohio State will not overwhelm USC immediately. The Buckeyes will lead 10–7 at halftime before their defense begins to take over, Smith scores his second touchdown and Ohio State pulls away during the fourth quarter. It will be another imperfect road victory, but it will also be proof that the Buckeyes can continue pursuing a Big Ten championship while Sayin recovers.

Which prediction are you buying, and what is your bold call for Halloween night at the Coliseum?

Go Bucks!

Photo Credit: DLRGroup