Ohio State has reached the portion of the season when every problem becomes urgent, every possession carries postseason weight and every Saturday begins to feel like an elimination game. The Buckeyes return to Ohio Stadium after a disappointing 30–18 loss at USC, a result that dropped them from No. 2 to No. 11 in the Associated Press poll and, more importantly, placed them at No. 12 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. There is still a path to everything Ohio State wants, but it has become narrow enough that no one inside the program can pretend otherwise.

That makes Oregon a fascinating and dangerous opponent. The Ducks have endured their own uneven season, including three losses and a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Dante Moore, but they remain talented, physical and capable of punishing every weakness Ohio State showed in Los Angeles. Oregon rallied from a 20–6 deficit to beat then-No. 20 Northwestern 34–26 last week, and backup quarterback Dylan Raiola delivered his best performance of the season with 336 passing yards and three touchdowns. If the Buckeyes arrive home still carrying the USC loss, Oregon has enough speed on offense and enough disruption along the defensive front to turn one disappointing night into a full postseason crisis.

The opportunity is equally obvious. Ohio State is back in the Horseshoe for the first time since October 10, where it has won 12 consecutive games. The running game finally showed signs of becoming the dependable foundation the offense has needed, Luke Fahey now has a full start behind him, and a defense that has been excellent for most of the season gets an immediate chance to prove the USC performance was an exception. This is no longer about protecting a ranking or winning with style. It is about responding like a championship program when the margin for error is gone.

Game Information

● Matchup: No. 23 CFP Oregon Ducks (5–3, 3–2 Big Ten) at No. 12 CFP Ohio State Buckeyes (6–2, 4–1 Big Ten)

● AP rankings: Ohio State No. 11; Oregon receiving votes

● Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026

● Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

● Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

● Television: CBS

● Streaming: Paramount+

● Broadcast team: Brad Nessler, Charles Davis and Jenny Dell

● Theme: Scarlet the Shoe

● Series: Ohio State leads 10–2, including 5–1 in Columbus

● Current line: Ohio State -7.5

● Over/under: 46.5

The first College Football Playoff rankings place Ohio State 12th and Oregon 23rd. The Buckeyes are 6–2 overall and 4–1 in conference play, while the Ducks are 5–3 and 3–2. Ohio State’s official preview confirms the 3:30 p.m. kickoff on CBS, and Oregon’s game notes list Brad Nessler, Charles Davis and Jenny Dell as the broadcast crew. The market has moved toward a lower-scoring game: the consensus line stood at Ohio State -7.5 with a total of 46.5 on Thursday morning after the total opened much higher.

Injury and Availability Report

Ohio State will again be without starting quarterback Julian Sayin, who remains out with the elbow injury he suffered at Indiana, and running back Ja’Kobi Jackson, who continues to recover from a Lisfranc injury. Freshman Luke Fahey will make his second consecutive start. Offensive tackle Jaxon Powell and tight end Maxence LeBlanc are also out, while starting left tackle Ian Moore, wide receivers Brandon Inniss and Brock Boyd, and linebacker Eli Lee were listed as questionable on the first midweek availability report.

There is some encouraging news for the Buckeyes. Freshman safety Jay Timmons, who has missed three of the past four games, was not listed on the initial report after participating fully in practice early in the week. Defensive tackle Eddrick Houston also avoided an injury designation after leaving the USC game late. Their availability would give Ohio State needed depth and athleticism against an Oregon offense designed to create space and force defenders to tackle in the open field.

Oregon has significant absences of its own. Dante Moore remains out, leaving Raiola as the starter, and leading rusher Jordon Davison will miss the game after leaving the Northwestern win injured. Davison leads the Ducks with 439 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Safety Aaron Flowers, defensive lineman Matthew Johnson, tight end Andrew Olesh, receiver Messiah Hampton, offensive linemen Trent Ferguson and Dave Iuli, and linebacker Brayden Platt were also listed out. Receiver Jeremiah McClellan, who has missed six games with a foot injury, was listed as probable.

Availability reports will be updated again before kickoff, with the Big Ten’s final game-day report due two hours before the game.

Ohio State Preview

Ohio State Offense: Build Around What Worked

The final score at USC was discouraging, but Ohio State did discover something it can carry forward. Bo Jackson and Isaiah West combined for 193 rushing yards on 34 carries, with Jackson producing 121 yards and West repeatedly adding energy and explosiveness. The Buckeyes finished with 204 rushing yards and 464 total yards, numbers that normally suggest an offense capable of controlling a game. The problem was not moving the ball between the 20s. It was converting that production into touchdowns, protecting the quarterback when USC knew a pass was coming and avoiding the mistakes that turned promising drives into field goals or empty possessions.

That distinction matters against Oregon. The Buckeyes should not respond to last week by asking Fahey to carry more of the offense. They should make his second start easier by leaning harder into the run game, marrying play-action concepts to the same formations and giving Jackson and West enough opportunities to establish a rhythm. Ohio State averages 159.5 rushing yards per game and only 4.1 yards per carry for the season, but the USC performance showed the line and backs can create movement against a talented defense. The next step is proving that performance was the beginning of an identity rather than a temporary improvement.

Fahey’s first start was not the reason Ohio State lost. The freshman completed 21 of 38 passes for 260 yards and a touchdown, kept competing under pressure and gave Jeremiah Smith enough chances to finish with 10 receptions for 83 yards and his Big Ten-record 40th career touchdown. Fahey also looked like a young quarterback making his first start on the road. He threw an interception, held the ball too long on some pressure looks and could not consistently finish drives once the field compressed. Those are correctable problems, but Oregon’s pass rush will not allow a gentle learning curve.

Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti have combined for 12 sacks and 15 tackles for loss, giving the Ducks two edge defenders capable of wrecking a protection plan. Oregon has 19 sacks as a team, and Ohio State is still evaluating its best five along an offensive line that may be without Ian Moore. If Moore cannot play, the Buckeyes will have to decide how best to use Austin Siereveld and whether more movement up front can be avoided. Communication, cadence and assignment clarity all became issues at USC. Against Oregon, one missed identification could produce a strip sack, a lost possession and the kind of momentum swing an underdog needs.

Ohio State still has the best individual matchup in the game whenever it throws to Smith. The junior enters Saturday with 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. His 225 career receptions, 3,625 receiving yards and 40 touchdown catches are the most by any FBS player since he entered college football in 2024, and he needs 164 receiving yards to set the Big Ten career record. Oregon has held opponents to a 55.2 percent completion rate and intercepted nine passes, so the Ducks will change the picture before the snap and attempt to bracket Smith on money downs. That should create chances for Carnell Tate, Chris Henry Jr. and the tight ends, but only if Fahey has enough time to get beyond his first read.

The statistical profile says Ohio State remains an elite offense despite two losses. The Buckeyes average 36.6 points, 474.8 yards and 6.8 yards per play while converting 44.2 percent of their third downs. Yet the USC game exposed the gap between aggregate numbers and situational football. Ohio State converted only seven of 16 third downs, scored on just one of its four trips inside the USC 20 and allowed pressure at the moments when the defense knew a pass was coming. The offense does not need to become more complicated this week. It needs to become more dependable.

Ohio State Defense: Reestablish the Standard

Ohio State’s defense still owns one of the strongest season-long profiles in the country. The Buckeyes allow 15.5 points and 273.5 yards per game, including only 95.8 rushing yards and 177.8 passing yards. Opponents have completed just 53.8 percent of their throws and produced only four passing touchdowns in eight games. Ohio State also ranks among the national leaders in preventing explosive plays and has held opponents to nine touchdowns in 18 red-zone trips.

That is why the USC performance felt so jarring. The Trojans averaged 6.8 yards per play, scored touchdowns on their first two possessions and repeatedly found answers when Ohio State needed a stop. Jayden Maiava threw for 222 yards, King Miller ran for 78 and Trent Mosley topped 100 receiving yards. The Buckeyes did not suddenly become a poor defense, but their tackling, leverage and early-down consistency fell below the standard that had carried them through the first seven games.

Oregon will stress many of the same areas. Raiola is playing with greater confidence, and the Ducks use formations, motion and run-pass conflict to manufacture favorable matchups. Dakorien Moore is the primary threat with 41 receptions for 545 yards and six touchdowns, and he is coming off seven catches for 128 yards and two scores against Northwestern. His 75-yard fourth-quarter touchdown was the decisive blow in Oregon’s comeback. Evan Stewart remains another experienced vertical threat, while McClellan’s potential return would add depth to a receiving corps that has absorbed multiple injuries.

The absence of Davison changes Oregon’s backfield, but it does not allow Ohio State to ignore the run. Freshman Brandon Smith produced 82 yards on only eight carries against Northwestern and gave the Ducks a needed change of pace. Oregon averages 140.4 rushing yards per game, but its offense is at its best when the run forces linebackers to step forward and opens the middle of the field for Raiola. Ohio State’s front must win first down, keep the Ducks behind schedule and make a backup quarterback beat a defense that can attack rather than react.

Third down may tell the story. Ohio State has allowed opponents to convert 38.5 percent of their attempts, a figure that is respectable but not dominant, while Oregon converts only 36 percent offensively. Northwestern went six of nine on third down in the first half last week before Oregon’s defense flipped the game and held the Wildcats to one of eight after halftime. The Buckeyes cannot let Raiola find the same early comfort. Pressure must be disciplined, because an uncontrolled rush will create escape lanes and easy throws underneath. If Ohio State wins on first and second down, it can make the full weight of Ohio Stadium part of the defensive plan.

Oregon Preview

Oregon Offense: Raiola and Moore Have Changed the Conversation

Oregon’s 5–3 record reflects a season that has rarely followed its original plan. Dante Moore began the year as the starter and completed nearly 70 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and no interceptions before his injury. Raiola, the former Nebraska quarterback, has since settled into the job and enters Saturday 96 of 145 for 1,097 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. His performance against Northwestern was the clearest indication that Oregon can still threaten a high-level defense without its original starter.

Raiola’s challenge is consistency. Oregon managed only 81 yards during the first 28 minutes against Northwestern and fell behind by two touchdowns before he found a rhythm. The Ducks have also lost road games at Oklahoma State and Illinois and are just 1–2 away from Autzen Stadium. Ohio Stadium will be the most demanding environment Raiola has faced in an Oregon uniform, especially if the Buckeyes give the crowd reasons to stay engaged early.

The Ducks average 33.3 points, 425.4 yards and 6.1 yards per play. Their passing game accounts for 285 yards per game, and they have thrown only three interceptions all season. Moore gives Oregon a receiver who can turn one missed angle into a touchdown, while Stewart has already hurt Ohio State before, catching seven passes for 149 yards and a touchdown in Oregon’s 32–31 win in 2024. The Buckeyes must tackle immediately after the catch and prevent the Ducks from turning routine completions into explosive plays.

Without Davison, the burden shifts toward Brandon Smith and the offensive line. Oregon has allowed 19 sacks, an important number for an Ohio State front that needs to affect the quarterback more consistently. The Buckeyes have recorded 11 sacks in eight games, and that modest total has occasionally forced the secondary to cover for too long. This is a week for Kenyatta Jackson Jr., Eddrick Houston and the rest of the front to change the game. Raiola has been efficient when the pocket is clean; the task is to make sure it rarely stays that way.

Oregon Defense: The Pass Rush Travels

Oregon’s defense has allowed 21.4 points and 341.8 yards per game. The Ducks surrender 133.8 yards on the ground and 208 through the air, but their most meaningful strengths are pressure and takeaways. Oregon has 19 sacks, nine interceptions and has held opponents to 31.4 percent on third down. Those are exactly the areas where a defense can make life uncomfortable for a freshman quarterback.

Uiagalelei and Tuioti give Dan Lanning the ability to create pressure without constantly committing extra defenders. That permits Oregon to play coverage behind the rush, close throwing windows around Smith and force Fahey to work methodically. Koi Perich leads the Ducks with 53 tackles and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions, giving Oregon an active safety who can disguise coverage and close quickly against the run.

The danger for Oregon is what Northwestern showed before the Ducks adjusted. The Wildcats scored 20 first-half points and converted six of nine third downs. Ohio State has more talent outside and a more powerful backfield, and the Ducks will be without several rotation players. If the Buckeyes can keep the down-and-distance manageable, Oregon’s edge rushers become less dangerous and play action becomes more credible. If Ohio State falls into repeated third-and-long situations, the advantage swings heavily toward the Ducks.

Buckeye Spotlight: Luke Fahey

Fahey does not need to look like a veteran on Saturday. He needs to look like a talented freshman who learned from his first start. That means taking the easy completion when Oregon gives it to him, setting protections decisively, avoiding the one reckless throw that changes the game and trusting the players around him. His job is not to replace Sayin’s entire season of production in a week. His job is to operate an offense built around Jackson, West and Smith without giving Oregon short fields.

The encouraging part of the USC game was Fahey’s resilience. He kept throwing after early pressure and finished with 260 yards in a difficult environment. Now the staff has a full game of film showing how an opponent plans to attack him. Oregon will test his eyes with late safety rotation, challenge Ohio State’s tackles with speed and try to make him hesitate. The Buckeyes can help through tempo, play action, screens and defined half-field reads, but eventually Fahey will have to win a third down from the pocket. If he protects the football and makes three or four high-leverage throws, Ohio State should have enough around him to win.

Opponent Spotlight: Matayo Uiagalelei

Raiola and Moore will receive most of the attention, but Uiagalelei may be Oregon’s most influential player in this particular matchup. He is part of a tandem with Tuioti that has combined for 12 sacks, and his ability to win one-on-one can wreck Ohio State’s plan before Fahey has a chance to settle in. His impact will be magnified if Moore cannot play or if Ohio State is forced to shuffle its tackles again.

Uiagalelei does more than chase quarterbacks. He can set the edge against the run, reduce inside on passing downs and force offenses to account for him with a tight end or running back. Every extra body committed to protection is one fewer receiver Oregon must defend. Ohio State cannot allow him to dictate the game. The Buckeyes should run at him enough to make him absorb contact, use chips and formation help on obvious passing downs, and avoid the predictable third-and-long situations that let him attack without hesitation.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Let the Run Game Carry the Offense

Ohio State found something real with Jackson and West at USC. The backs combined for 193 yards, ran through contact and gave the offense its most stable source of production. Against Oregon, that success must become the foundation rather than a supporting element. A productive run game protects Fahey, slows Oregon’s edge rushers and gives the Buckeyes a chance to control the game without exposing their quarterback to 40 dropbacks.

2. Protect the Quarterback and the Football

Oregon’s pass rush is too talented for Ohio State to survive protection mistakes. The Buckeyes must settle the offensive-line combination, communicate cleanly and give Fahey answers when the Ducks bring pressure. Fahey, in turn, must accept that a punt is better than a turnover. With both teams starting backup quarterbacks, the team that creates the shorter field may decide the game.

3. Win Money Downs and the Red Zone

Ohio State moved the ball at USC but failed to turn enough drives into touchdowns. Oregon’s defense allows only 31.4 percent on third down, while Ohio State’s offense converts 44.2 percent. That matchup will determine whether the Buckeyes can sustain possessions and keep pressure off their defense. When they reach the red zone, field goals cannot be the default outcome. Ohio State needs touchdowns to create separation and force Raiola to chase the game.

What I’ll Be Watching

The First 15 Minutes

Ohio State cannot afford another emotionally flat start. The crowd will arrive ready to support a response, but frustration will build quickly if the same protection, penalty and tackling problems appear. A fast start would let the Buckeyes play from ahead, unleash the defensive front and prevent Oregon from settling into its preferred rhythm.

The Offensive-Line Combination

Ian Moore’s status could reshape the entire front. If he cannot go, where Siereveld lines up and how Ohio State handles the tackle rotation will matter immediately. More important than the names is whether the group plays as a connected unit. Oregon will test communication with movement and pressure looks, and the line cannot repeat the uncertainty that appeared at USC.

Jackson and West After Contact

The backs were Ohio State’s most encouraging development in Los Angeles. I will be watching whether they continue to create yards after first contact and whether the staff keeps both involved. Their complementary styles can wear on Oregon and give Fahey manageable third downs.

Jay Timmons’ Return

Timmons’ expected availability matters against a receiving corps built around speed. His range and competitiveness can help Ohio State match Oregon’s personnel without sacrificing as much flexibility in coverage. The question will be how large a role he can handle after missing most of the past month.

Ohio State’s Pass Rush

The Buckeyes have allowed only four passing touchdowns all season, but they have generated just 11 sacks. Coverage has often carried the defense. Against Raiola, Ohio State needs the front to finish pressures and force hurried decisions. If the Buckeyes can affect him with four rushers, the entire defensive plan becomes easier.

Water Cooler: Recent History Has Changed This Series

Ohio State leads the all-time series 10–2 and has won five of six meetings in Columbus, but the overall record hides how dramatically the rivalry has changed. Oregon’s only two victories have come in the last three regular meetings. The Ducks won 35–28 in Ohio Stadium in 2021, their first victory over the Buckeyes, and then edged Ohio State 32–31 in Eugene in 2024. Ohio State answered in the most emphatic way possible, dominating top-ranked Oregon 41–21 in the 2025 Rose Bowl quarterfinal on its way to the national championship.

That recent sequence makes Saturday more than a matchup between a ranked team and a talented three-loss opponent. Oregon has already proven it can win in the Horseshoe, and several current Ducks contributed to the 2024 victory. Ohio State, meanwhile, knows what its best football looks like against this opponent. In the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes scored the first 34 points, produced eight sacks and 13 tackles for loss, and watched Smith catch seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns.

There is another statistic worth carrying into the conversation: Ryan Day is 30–2 at home in Big Ten games and 14–2 at Ohio Stadium in November. Ohio State has won 12 consecutive home games, tied for the fourth-longest active home streak nationally entering the week. Those numbers describe a program that usually responds at home when the season tightens. Saturday will test whether that history still carries weight when the Buckeyes are starting a freshman quarterback and playing with their postseason future exposed.

The playoff implications are unavoidable. Ohio State is currently the final at-large team in the committee’s top 12, but that position offers no security with three-loss Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan still on the schedule. A victory would give the Buckeyes a third win over a team in the initial CFP top 25, strengthen their résumé and preserve a path toward both the Big Ten Championship Game and the playoff. A third loss would almost certainly end any realistic at-large path and leave Ohio State dependent on chaos it cannot control. As Payton Pierce said this week, it is playoff time now because the Buckeyes cannot lose.

Prediction

Oregon is good enough to expose every weakness Ohio State showed at USC. The Ducks can pressure Fahey, Moore can create an explosive touchdown and Raiola is coming off the best game of his season. This will not be a comfortable rebound game, and expecting the Buckeyes to look fully repaired after one week would ignore the problems in pass protection, red-zone execution and defensive consistency.

Still, Ohio State has the better defense, the best player on the field in Smith and a home environment that should matter. The most important development from Los Angeles was the emergence of a legitimate two-back rushing attack. Jackson and West should give the Buckeyes enough stability to protect Fahey, while the absence of Davison makes Oregon more dependent on Raiola surviving Ohio State’s front in a hostile stadium. I expect a tense game into the fourth quarter, with one defensive takeaway and a late clock-draining drive allowing the Buckeyes to finally create separation.

Ohio State 27, Oregon 20

Photo Credit: The Columbus Dispatch