Week 9 Predictions – 2020
Last Week: It ended eight weeks of waiting but Buckeye Nation finally got to enjoy a football victory. There were times when the Ohio State lines were being outmatched but let’s look at it as an opportunity to grow. In the end the Buckeyes got a dominating 52-17 over an improving Nebraska squad. I am sure they will be a stronger team each week and more importantly, they are nationally discussed again. Bottom line, they did everything they needed to do in their first week of play. As for our staff predictions both Dr Mark and former Buckeye Vaughn Broadnax were 5-0 to start 2020. Seven others were 4-1, so clearly we are still on our game in what will be one of the craziest college football seasons.
This Week’s Games: Ohio State travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. They will not have to face the infamous ‘White-Out’ that Herbstreit likes to praise so much but the Nittany Lions are 8-8 in White-Out games so is it really making much of a difference?
Buckeye Greats: As with the past, we will continue to include former Buckeye players in our prediction fun and we are thrilled to have Vaughn Broadnax back with us as a regular participant for the sixth straight year.
Here we go with our Week 9 Picks – Good Luck to All – Gregg
(3)Ohio State @ (16)Penn State
Andy: An away night game during a white out would normally make for a challenging evening. With no fans in the stadium, this is basically a neutral site game. Penn State is in a tough situation this year. They’ve never quite developed some of their highly recruited receivers and their tail back group has been hit hard by injuries recently. I don’t see Penn State having the skills on offense to get into a shoot out with Ohio State. Add to that, Penn State’s best player Micah Parsons never opted back into this season. Having little offensive weapons, I think we’ll see Sean Clifford try more runs against the Buckeyes. But he alone is not enough to take over a game. Ohio State 42 – Penn State 21
Coach Rick: Not sure if PSU was looking ahead or is not a good team this season. I think it will start off being a good game but OSU blows them out in the end.
Cory: It would be easy to look at Ohio State’s big win last week and Penn State’s disappointing loss to Indiana and come to the conclusion that the Buckeyes will win without much of a problem. There are some concerns with Ohio State. First, the Buckeyes struggled to stop the running game last week and Nebraska eventually had to go away from that as the Cornhuskers were down big in the second half. You cannot assume Ohio State will hold such a big lead that Penn State will do the same and abandon the run game. Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford can run the ball. He had five rushing touchdowns last season, and in the loss last week he went for 119 rushing yards and a touchdown. Aside from that, Clifford is an Ohio guy having went to St. Xavier for high school, so there will be some extra motivation. Not having fans will be a detriment for Penn State as Beaver Stadium is always a tough place to play, however, Penn State always keeps it close with the Buckeyes and I expect nothing different this time around. Ohio State 28, Penn State 24
Dave: Ohio State 32 Penn State 24
Dr. Mark: OSU 35-21 Thought Justin Fields threw the ball very well. Most concerned about the D in the middle of the field. Huskers had a lot of good plays there early
Gregg: Before the season this was going to be the game to decide the East and it still is. The Buckeyes I believe were holding back last week. Expect more incomplete passes from Justin Fields, but he will have an even better game than last week. ANd the defense will shore up a couple of those holes in the rushing defense. This will not be a one point game likes we have seen a couple times over the past few years. Ohio State 54 Penn State 24
Jason: Ohio State all the way
John: Many feel OSU is catching a “Covid” break in not having to face a “white out”, but the fact is OSU is 5-2 in Happy Valley in the “white out” era. While Nit fans will probably argue until the end of time that Penix did break the plane last week on the two point try, the hard truth is that PSU should never have been in position to lose that game in OT. The Lions basically outplayed IU most of the game, but too many dumb penalties, bad turnovers and a major brain cramp by your head coach (come on, how do you not tell you RB not to score in that situation. Or here’s an idea, just have your QB take a knee 4 times and make IU go 85 yards in 10 second tie the game!) is what cost you that game, not replays decision to not overturn the 2-pt try. Meanwhile, OSU used a very vanilla game plan on both sides of the ball to blow out a decent but not great Nebraska team. I think most of the dumb stuff PSU did can be attributed to last week being week one, and I’d expect most of those issues to be corrected this week. What can’t be corrected in a week is the talent gap and the fact that PSU is down to their 3rd string RB. Look for this one to be close into the 4th quarter, but I expect the Bucks to prevail in the end. Ohio State 31 Penn State 24
Josh: Ohio State played a B+ game last week against Nebraska, and showed a few wrinkles against a running quarterback, and need of a better run game. Those areas will be the biggest test for the Buckeyes to win this game, is if they can limit Sean Clifford, who is now without running back Noah Cain, and put pressure on him enough to make him run it more than he can throw. I expect the running game to show improvement this week too, and hopefully we will see one of the running backs emerge as a lead running back. Don’t be surprised though if Fields is the leading rusher again this week though as he has proven that he has made a lot of progress from last season, but his ability to extend plays is why he is in the Heisman race. I think the Nittany Lions might get a few good looks, but without a rowdy fan base to create home field advantage, this game will come down to talent, and the Buckeyes talent will shine in this one, getting them a high value win, and a head up in the Big Ten East race. Ohio State 42 – Penn State 17.
Pia Pete: The Lions are going to be pissed they lost to Indiana and are going to give OSU everything they have. Bucks win in a close one. OSU 35 – PSU 30
PJSBuck: Well, first a few words about last week. I was appalled by the fouls and dirty play of Nebraska. Heretofore, I always thought Nebraska and their fans were a high class act. But all the targeting calls left me with no choice other than to think they were planned ahead of time. At no time did their coach show remorse or dissatisfaction with the ongoing targeting fouls so I think at the very least, support for that kind of play was tolerated. I thought better of Nebraska and Scott Frost. Oh well, there are a lot of teams at the bottom of the Big Ten heap of programs with low class and now Nebraska can join them. And, I am concerned about our play at running back, linebacker and O-line. Some of this was rust but we have a lot to fix, FAST. To me, the only TB who ran with any degree of authority was third-string Chambers. It will be interesting to watch their improvement this week. Unfortunately we get Penn State at a time where they are no doubt fuming about that OT touchdown call at Indiana which cost them the game. I watched that entire game and honestly nothing stood out on either side of the ball for PSU that scares me. PSU’s QB did not like to be hurried and his TB rarely bailed him out. I am looking to our team to see improvement in key areas and expect a more disciplined team and execution. Ohio State 45 PSU 17
Steven: Penn State is down on personnel, with LB Micah Parsons opting out and RB Noah Cain out with a lower leg injury. This is on top of the just general talent deficit each Big Ten team has to face when playing Ohio State. Many people have pointed to OSU’s pedestrian line play last week against Nebraska. If the Buckeyes allow the run game to mature they can be deadly. During 2014 the run game didn’t break out until midway through the season. In games against Navy and VT Ezekiel Elliott averaged about 4 yards per rush and didn’t break 100 yards until game 4 against Cincinnati. While we may not have a generational talent like Zeke on this team, (yet?), we are much deeper compared to that National Championship team. Master Teague, Trey Sermon and Steele Chambers all can carry the load, not to mention what Justin Fields can add. The run game will be fine. With a possible loss of Chris Olave on the edge and the soft middle in the Penn State defense, I expect a lot of seam and crossing routes to gash the Nittany Lion defense. If the defensive line improves as well and can keep PSU QB Sean Clifford from breaking containment like Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey did last week the Bucks should put up a similar score. PSU might score a bit more, but not it’s not going to be by much, OSU 55-29.
Trout: Although I am less afraid of this game as I was a week ago, I still think this will be a good challenge for the Buckeyes. I have no doubt the Buckeyes will win, but I do think Penn State will put up a fight. I see this game being relatively close for a while. But the superior talent of the Buckeye offense will allow them to pull away. And with the Nittany Lions lack of depth in some of their offensive positions, they will not be able to catch up. The Bucks pull of the victory in Happy Valley. (OSU, 35-21)
Final Score: Ohio State 38 Penn State 25
Texas @ (6)Oklahoma State
Andy: I called for an upset last week with Iowa State overcoming Oklahoma State. I was wrong and it never happened, in fact the Sooners showed great resolve gritting out a win at home against an aggressive Cyclones team. They’re playing a much more talented team this weekend in Texas. This Longhorn team is built to win right now, they have a top 5 roster in all of college football in terms of talent and a fourth year starting quarterback who is still a Heisman hopeful in Sam Ehlinger. But we haven’t seen the Longhorn defense gel after working with new defensive coordinator Chris Ashe. It is still a work in progress, one which could lose this game for them. I do think Texas will find a way to grit this out. Texas 48 – Oklahoma State 35
Coach Rick: I am surprised with the season OSU is having. They play the better teams close and think this will be just that, a close game. Going by stats, Texas gets the win.
Cory: Things are going from bad to worse for Tom Herman and his Texas Longhorns. Many thought this would be the season the Longhorns completed their turnaround and established themselves as an elite team again. Instead, Texas sits at 2-2 with their two wins being an overtime win over Texas Tech, and an uninspired win over Baylor. Additionally, Texas had a commit from the No. 1 quarterback in the country in Quinn Ewers, but he has since decommitted. Oklahoma State is a top-10 team and the Cowboys might be for real. The schedule was easy until last week when Oklahoma State edged out a three-point win over Iowa State to remain undefeated. All signs point to an Oklahoma State victory this week, which is going to make it seem odd that I’ve picked Texas. Herman may not be the answer at coach for Texas but he’s not a bad coach and has a lot of talent on that team. The Longhorns can put up a lot of points but they have fallen just short on the defensive side so far. That is a concern against a team like Oklahoma State, however, with the Cowboys coming off a hard-fought win last week and Texas feeling like they have their backs against the wall I am calling for the upset. Texas 45, Oklahoma State 35
Dave: Oklahoma State 38 Texas 21
Dr. Mark: OK State- 38-31 This will be good game – I think Texas QB is a good player but Texas is still very inconsistent in most aspects.
Gregg: Has this game EVER been played when Oklahoma State was a top ten team and Texas was unranked? Are those rankings accurate or just a product of the games played. The Cowboys are likely in the Big12 championship game with a win and might still be in with a loss. Meanwhile Coach Herman has Longhorn fans thinking is he an elite coach or just someone that blows the whistle on his former employer. As long as he is in Austin, I can not root for Texas, but I think their ‘win at all cost attitude’ will win this one. But OSU will make it tough for them, just don’t expect a lot of defense. Texas 51 Oklahoma State 42
John: Texas goes into this one sitting at 3-2 in what is shaping up to be the Tom Herman farewell tour. The most surprising thing in this one is that #6 Oklahoma State is only a three point favorite at home, which is basically just the home field advantage. What that means is that to the betting public, this game would be a pick-em on a neutral field, and in the year of Covid, aren’t all fields basically neutral? After watching the Red River Shootout (the hell with political correctness!) I’m not going to count the ‘Horns out as long as Ellinger is playing. Going out on a not so narrow limb and picking Texas in a mild upset. Texas 38 Oklahoma State 34
Josh: If Tom Herman wants to keep his job in Austin, this will be a game that is a must win for him. Through his time so far at Texas, his overall record is the same as Mac Brown’s was in his last few years before he was fired. Oklahoma State won a very close game last week against Iowa State, and has impressed me with their defense, which is key to winning in the Big 12 with all of the pass heavy teams in the conference. Chuba Hubbard will be the key in this game as the Cowboys will need to rely on ball control, and so far he has had a good start with 478 yards to go along with 5 touchdowns. Sam Ehlinger though is a good player, not elite, but enough to create plays for the Longhorns and keep them in this game. I anticipate this game to be a high scoring close game, and Texas finds a way to spoil the so far perfect season for Mike Gundy and the Cowboys. Texas 38 – Oklahoma State 35
Pia Pete: The Cowboys continue to impress. OSU 44 – UT 24
PJSBuck: If you are looking for a game to tape this weekend, this would be it. This should provide a lot of interesting action by both offenses and I look for Oklahoma State to win in a perceived upset.
Steven: After what Texas coach Tom Herman pulled on his former team, many in Buckeye Nation would like to see him go down in flames. While this seems like a great bit of karma, I’m more in the camp of hoping for chaos in the Big 12. A lack of an unbeaten means more to me right now than any personal pleasure that could be derived from coach Herman’s inevitable demise. So as much as it might pain me, I’ll be rooting for the Longhorns. While the other OSU is sporting decent defensive numbers, they have not seen an offense like Texas. My personal rooting interest aside, I like Texas to light up the Cowboy secondary. This could be a shootout, but I doubt the other OSU offense can hang with the Longhorns. Texas 44-31.
Trout: I don’t see this game being close. Texas is not where they need to be to compete in the Big 12. It might be a bit of a shootout for a while, because there is no defense in that conference, but the Cowboys will pull away eventually. Texas won’t be able to handle their fire power. Texas loses and Hermon remains on the hot seat. (Oklahoma State, 48-21)
Final Score: Texas 41 Oklahoma State 34 OT
(19)Indiana @ Rutgers
Andy: Two of the biggest head turners from week one of the Big Ten season in Indiana and Rutgers will face each other this weekend. I don’t think Indiana has arrived just yet to put all the teams on notice, especially with a Rutgers team that is playing with enthusiasm for the first time in what seems like a decade. I do like Indiana in this game, but quarterback Michael Penix will need to play better on the road if he wants to stay unbeaten. I see it happening. Indiana 31 – Rutgers 24
Coach Rick: Who would have said the winner of this game starts off 2 and 0? I do not think this will be a good game and Indiana wins by 21.
Cory: As if 2020 hasn’t been weird enough, Indiana upset a top-10 team for the first time since 1987 after beating Penn State last week, and now the Hoosiers are ranked No. 17 in the country. The last time Indiana was ranked in the top 20 was 1993. So let that sink in for a moment, and once that is done consider that Rutgers also managed to pull off an incredible upset in beating Michigan State last week. Though Michigan State is not at the same level as Penn State right now, it’s still an impressive win for the Scarlet Knights. This will be an interesting game to watch. Though Indiana won, the Hoosiers struggled to move the ball with any consistency until late in the game last week. Yes, you can make the argument that Penn State has an elite defense, but the Hoosier have got to get things going early. If the game becomes a shootout, that would seem to favor the Hoosiers. Though the Scarlet Knights won last week they did so with four rushing touchdowns. Even with the Scarlet Knights being improved this year, their defense won’t pose the same challenge to Indiana as Penn State did. Indiana 31, Rutgers 17
Dave: Indiana 32 Rutgers 18
Dr. Mark: Indiana 31-24 Will have some faith in the Hoosiers – not sure what to say about Rutgers at this point
Gregg: Both of these teams are thrilled to be 1-0 to start the season. Indiana was gifted their win, Rutgers earned theirs. I do think both teams are improved but the Hoosiers are just a bit better. But Rutgers showed they have a defense and if they can show that Schiano defense they have a chance to pull off the upset. Might be fun to watch, we will see. Indiana 20 Rutgers 17
John: Both teams are on emotional highs after week one, so which team handles the heightened expectations that goes with winning the best? Indiana has been close in the past several seasons of getting a signature win against the Big Three of OSU, PSU and UM, and been to a bowl in three of the last five years. While nowhere the heights that Ohio State as enjoyed, it is lightyears beyond anything Rutgers has accomplished, as the Scarlet Knights have had just one winning season (and has never had a winning conference record) since joining the Big Ten in 2014. Indiana 30 Rutgers 17
Josh: This game is pinnacle 2020. If someone would have told me Rutgers would have beat Michigan State and Indiana beat Penn State their first week, I would have a hard time believing it. But here we are. Both teams fighting to remain at the top of the Big Ten East. I wonder if Tennessee fans still feel happy about boycotting trying to hire Schiano. (Too soon to tell?) Indiana gained a lot of momentum winning such a dramatic game in overtime, and now will have to travel across the country to play a Schiano led Rutgers team who had their first conference win since 2017. I think the defense for Rutgers will have improved, and they had some talent at some of the skill positions, but I think Tom Allen and the Hoosiers are trying to make a statement this year, and with a healthy Michael Penix, he will be the difference maker for me in this game. Indiana 28 – Rutgers 17
Pia Pete: Indiana going 2-0 to start the Big Ten does not surprise me in 2020. IU 28 – RU 17
PJSBuck: My weekly “who gives a sh*&^# t game of the week.” What will be interesting is how Schiano now schemes for Indiana, since IU proved it can put up points. Unfortunately, I am going with Rutgers by 7.
Steven: Psychologically, the win against Penn State may have unintended effects. The euphoria from knocking off Penn State could very easily lead to a trap game in New Jersey. Indiana should win, but it will probably be closer than one might expect. IU 27-24.
Trout: Although it was nice to see both these teams get. Win last week, I don’t think either are ready to complete there yet. Having said that, the Hoosiers are the better of the two. I think they should be able to handle whatever the Scarlet Knights throw at them. It won’t be an overly dominant performance, but they should be able to win comfortably. Indiana remains unbeaten. (Indiana, 28-10)
Final Score: Indiana 37 Rutgers 21
Arkansas @ (8)Texas A&M
Andy: This is one of the more interesting matchups this weekend. Arkansas got a gift from the transfer portal this offseason in quarterback Felipe Franks by way of the Florida Gators. So far Felipe Franks has this Razorbacks offense operating like a well oiled machine. He is completing nearly 65% of his passes in a league that traditionally has very tough pass defenses. I see Franks getting one of his toughest challenges of the season Saturday vs the Aggies. A&M much like Texas is built to win now, they have a stacked roster and a third year starter at quarterback in Kellen Mond. A&M has allowed a good amount of fans into their stadium this year, I expect as much this Saturday. I don’t think Arkansas has enough horses to win the race, but will put up a good effort. Texas A&M 38 – Arkansas 24
Coach Rick: This is going to be a great game in my opinion. I give the home team the edge as they will need the 12th man to win this one.
Cory: Arkansas looks be on the correct path as the Razorbacks are 2-1 with wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The one loss was to Auburn by two points. While Arkansas may be improved this year, traveling to Texas A&M is going to be a terrific challenge for them. Texas A&M is one of the schools allowing fans into the stadium despite COVID-19 and there have been a lot of fans at their games. Additionally, though the Aggies failed their biggest challenge thus far this year with a big loss to Alabama, they rebounded with an impressive win against Florida. The Aggies also feature a really good quarterback in Kellen Mond. Arkansas may put up a fight, but ultimately this game won’t be too much of a challenge for the home team. Texas A&M 35, Arkansas 14
Dave: Texas A&M 42 Arkansas 28
Dr. Mark: A&M 42-34 Probably not much defense Aggies had a lot of preseason hype but not really playing up to it —-yet
Gregg: Who is really buying the hype that Texas A&M is the #8 team in the country. They are getting credit for their only loss is to Alabama. The Tide is clearly the class of the SEC again this year, but that doesn’t mean that three other teams with loses deserve to be in the top 9. Maybe it will shake out as the season continues. Arkansas finally got in the winning column in the conference this year and probably should have another win if the refs make the right call, but I don’t think they have quite enough to out perform the Aggies. Closer than expected but in the end I think the Razorbacks go down. Texas A&M 40 Arkansas 35
John: Outside of Alabama and Georgia, the SEC appears to be made up of few very average teams and a few not so good ones. However, ESPN loves them to death (follow the money) so A & M comes into the week at #8 after getting wacked by the only good team the faced (and yes, I know they beat an overrated Florida). Look for the Aggies to keep their faint SEC West hopes alive. Texas A&M 24 Arkansas 10
Josh: Arkansas might be the most improved team in the SEC, and really should be 4-1 going into this game, not 3-2. Texas A&M came down to earth a little bit last week after beating Florida, and won 28-14 against Mississippi State, a team that Arkansas also beat this season, but only by a margin of 7. On paper, the quarterbacks are very similar in style, and both head coaches are trying to make a mark. This might be a game of the most underrated SEC team against the most overrated SEC team. Jimbo Fisher’s time so far as the Aggies head coach has been a lot of “almosts” and continues to be rewarded for 8-5 seasons. I think the key to this game will be which team will be able to control the line of scrimmage, and from just watching these two teams so far. I think Arkansas has the tools to do that and pull the upset in College Station. They were a bad call away from beatin Auburn, and after coming off a bye week, they will have had time to scheme for this game. I think it will be close, but the Razorbacks find a way to win. Arkansas 21 – Texas A&M 17
Pia Pete: The Aggies should win this one. TAM 21 – Arkansas 17
PJSBuck: Runner up for my above game of the week. Now that I am able to stop watching the SEC I don’t follow the games anymore. I doubt if the winner determines anything relative to the playoffs so I see this as the hillbilly’s vs. the cowboys. Texas A&M by 10.
Steven: You know you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel when you have to pick an Arkansas game. I think I had Kellen Mond in College Fantasy Football last year. The guy is solid. He’s statistically neck and neck with Razorback QB Feleipe Franks. The difference between these two teams is on defense. Texas A&M is just a bit sharper giving up 60 yards and 5 less points per game. Works for me. A&M 33-28.
Trout: The Aggies will win this game, but it’ll be close. I don’t believe that A&M is that good of a team. Besides the Florida game, they have looked pedestrian. Not to mention they were completely embarrassed by Alabama. I think the Razorback can at least keep up with them for a while. I see it being a low scoring affair, with Texas A&M barely escaping with the win. (Texas A&M, 21-17)
Final Score: Texas A&M 42 Arkansas 31
Memphis @ (7)Cincinnati
Andy: These two teams played each other twice in consecutive weeks last year. Both of those games were great and Memphis won both, but that was a different season with a previous head coach. One thing that Cincinnati has consistently done well is protect the football on offense and play amazing defense. 2020 is no different for the Bearcat defense. I expect a lower scoring game than the two we saw last season. Cincinnati 28 – Memphis 21
Coach Rick: Point blank – Cincinnati by 24 or more points!!
Cory: Last week I picked Cincinnati to lose to SMU, saying the Bearcats struggled in high-scoring games. They then went out and beat SMU 42-13. It is time to start believing in the Bearcats because they are a high quality football team. Quarterback Desmond Ridder leads a very balanced attack for Cincinnati. He has been efficient as a throwing and is tied for the team lead in rushing yards. The difference for Cincinnati this year is an improved defense. So far only one team – Austin Peay – has scored more than 13 points on Cincinnati and that came in the season opener. Memphis beat Cincinnati twice last year but the big loss for the Tigers is that of head coach Mike Norvell, left after the season to go to Florida State. Though the Tigers will present a challenge for Cincinnati, expect the Bearcats to rise to that challenge this year. Cincinnati 34, Memphis 21
Dave: Cincinnati 32 Memphis 28
Dr. Mark: Cincy 24-21 It all depends on Cincy D – Memphis capable of high scoring rout – but Ill give Luke’s boys a chance to shut them down.
Gregg: Cincinnati had a solid season on 2019 and the team’s performance earned Coach Fickell more money. Their only blemishes on schedule were to Ohio State and Memphis, both on the road. Unfortunately for the Bearcats, they actually lost twice to the Tigers, including a tough defeat in the AAC championship game. This year the game is in the Queen City and Cincinnati is looking even better in 2020. Look for this to be a close game but in the end, the Tigers go back to Tennessee with a loss. Cincinnati 34 Memphis 27
John: The Bearcats faced the Tigers twice last year – lost them both. Don’t think they won’t remember. UC will continue to be the non-power fives best shot at crashing the CFP. Enjoy Luke while you got hem, ‘Cats fans. Cincinnati 33 Memphis 21
Josh: I came away impressed with how well the Bearcats played last week against SMU, who had one of the best offenses in the country. I think they are focused this season, and getting Coach Fickell to stay in the Queen City has been a motivational boost that has elevated this team so far. Memphis has competed for the top of the AAC for the last several years, and beat the Bearcats two weeks in a row last year to win the AAC. I think this is the year that Cincinnati gets its revenge, and this is a big stepping stone to competing for a New Years 6 spot, and potentially a playoff spot. Cincinnati 31 – Memphis 21
Pia Pete: The Fighting Fickells continue to win. UC 35 UM 27
PJSBuck: Probably will be a fun game to watch. This should be an offensive explosion. I am going with Memphis by 13 as they have looked toug.
Steven: Memphis is DEAD LAST in defense this season. Cincinnati is 18th. Cinci’s offense is middle of the road but should be able exploit a team giving up 567.8 yards per game. Yikes. Cinci 42-21.
Trout: This will be a good game to watch. I think it will be a very close, high scoring game. Both teams have the ability to score a lot of points. I will give the Bearcats the edge in this one. I think they are better than they were a year ago, and I know they will be wanting revenge for those back to back loses. I see the game going back and forth between the two teams. In the end, the Bearcats score just enough to win, and remain unbeaten. (Cincinnati, 42-35)
ESPN GameDay: Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard are taking the Bearcats. David Pollack believes Cincinnati will remember those two loses but still don’t have the defense to win and is taking the Tigers.