Week 5 Predictions – 2024
Last Week: The Herd came Thundering into Columbus and rode out with their $1.6 million payout and 49-14 loss. Start was a bit slow for the Buckeye defense as they gave up their first touchdown of the season on the opening drive. But they basically shut Marshall down the rest of the game. The offense continues to roll and is ready for a stronger opponent. For our staff picks, ‘Joe-S-U’ lead the way going 4-1, and we still have a 4-way tie for 1st place.
This Week’s Games: Ohio State starts their Big Ten slate and goes on the road for the first tim to face Michigan State in East Lansing. Do the Spartans have any way to pull off the upset over the Buckeyes? …. The top game of the week will be Georgia vs Alabama. The Dawgs are the higher rated team, but Coach Smart is 1-5 against the Tide. Can he start a winning strike in his first game against Alabama without Nick Saban on the sideline? …. Louisville and Notre Dame will face-off with a lot on the line for both teams. The Irish are still trying to earn a place in the playoffs and the Cardinals are still unbeaten and currently the team to catch in the ACC. …. Another interesting match-up for Big Ten fans will be Illinois and Penn State. Most fans had the Nittany Lions on their radar going into this season, but unbeaten Illinois have been a surprise. Will we find out which team is the real contender this weekend?
Buckeye Greats: As in the past, we will continue to include former Buckeye players in our prediction fun and we are thrilled to have Vaughn Broadnax back with us as a regular participant for the tenth straight year.
Here we go with our Week 5 Picks – Good Luck to All – Gregg
(3)Ohio State @ Michigan State
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): Ohio State should have their way with the Spartans. However, the team faltered and seemed distracted in a couple facets of the game last weekend. The defense will come correct and the kickoffs will be straight this week. Buckeyes spank the Spartans 52-9.
Andy: Michigan State is playing much better this season under new head coach Jonathan Smith losing a close game to Boston College who has also been a pleasant surprise so far this season. One thing I noticed researching Michigan State was that they are having issues with overall talent and depth on the offensive line. Look for Michigan State to run a lot of fast plays on offense to try and keep the Ohio State defense off balanced, but if the Spartans expect to win they will need a superhuman performance from quarterback Aiden Chiles. I don’t see it happening given their lines of scrimmage shouldn’t be able to hold up to Ohio State. Ohio State 37 Michigan State 10
Cory: Non-conference play has ended for the Buckeyes as they open Big 10 play with a road trip to East Lansing to play Michigan State. The Spartans are off to a 3-1 start under new head coach Jonathan Smith. They were nearly 4-0 but a late-game desperation throw by quarterback Aidan Chiles was intercepted and the Spartans lost by four points. Michigan State has a balanced offense, two decent running backs, and Chiles has a big arm and some serious potential. That said, the concern with the Spartans offense is the turnovers. Six fumbles, three of which were lost, and seven interceptions by Chiles have really hurt this team so far. Chiles, also, is struggling with consistency as he’s completed just 54.3 percent of his passes. The Buckeyes need to put an emphasis on stopping the running game and forcing Chiles to beat them because right now I don’t think he can. That said, this Michigan State team is better than it’s been in a few years and Ohio State should not take the Spartans lightly. Ohio State 35, Michigan State 14
Dave: Ohio State 32 Michigan State 14
Gregg: The warm-up games are over, now the season goes up a notch for the Buckeyes. Ohio State will start on the road and it is probably good for them to be away from the friendly walls of the ‘Shoe. The team seems to be coming together well but now they need to prove they can do it against a conference opponent. Michigan State is not one of the better teams in the conference but have a solid 3-1 record. Expect the Buckeyes to have another great performance and take care of business. I think they cover the spread and move on to the next week and keep this train rolling. They may use Will Howard a bit more in this game, thinking he will be close to 300 yards in this one. Ohio State 45 Michigan State 10
Joe-S-U: OSU
John: Sparty is off to a nice start, sitting at 3-1. Good win at Maryland in week 2, tough loss last week at Boston College. MSU may not be the pushover they have been these past few years. This is both OSU’s first conference game this year plus first road game,.It will be interesting to see if the Bucks come out loose, or if the change in scenery has them a little tight. This one might be tighter than the 24 point spread, but the Bucks just have too much talent and pull away to a convincing win. Ohio State 45 Michigan State 24
Josh: The great thing about this team is that they have experience in all 3 phases, and even though Will Howard is starting for his “first year” with the Buckeyes, I think his years of experience playing on the road in some of the bigger stadiums in the Big 12 will prepare him for the Michigan State environment. Michigan State will come out with their best shot of trying to upset the Buckeyes, but I think the talent and the discipline of the team in silver helmets will be the difference. I see the Buckeyes winning this one comfortably like they have the last few seasons, and the Buckeyes move to 4-0. Ohio State 45 – Michigan State 6
Steven: Coming into the season, Michigan State was a bit of an enigma. There are a lot of new faces in East Lansing. Oregon State transfer QB Aidan Chiles was a backup to DJ Uiagalelei last season where he completed close to 67% of his passes in limited duty. This year, the sledding has been a bit tougher as the starter. Chiles’ completion percentage has dropped to 53.4% and last week Boston College grabbed 3 INTs off of him. The Bucks, while probably licking their chops at the potential for sacks and turnovers, really need to concentrate on plugging the middle of the line and limiting the Spartans run game. Last week’s sub-par defensive performance against Marshall showed how much this team needs Tyleik Williams on the line. Hopefully he comes back this week, but if not, the rest of the line should use the opportunity to step up. The Bucks will continue to roll and most likely score at least one defensive or special teams TDs. Remember Teddy Ginn up in East Lansing? Brandon Innis could carve a similar path this weekend. OSU 48-14.
Trout: Sparty is definitely a step up from the 3 previous teams that Ohio State has played, but I still see the Buckeyes winning comfortably. Although Michigan State has given the Buckeyes fits in the past, I just don’t see that being the case this year. The Buckeye offense is just so explosive. I can see another big game for Judkins and Henderson. And as long as Howard plays smart and doesn’t turn the ball over, I can’t see the Spartans keeping up with this offense. Sparty might keep close initially, but they won’t have the talent to maintain that throughout the game. The Buckeyes go into East Lansing and win by a few scores. (Ohio State, 35-10)
Final Score: Ohio State 38 Michigan State 7
(2)Georgia @ (4)Alabama
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): Georgia over Alabama 31-24.
Andy: The game of the week for everybody this is a legit playoff game we are getting in September. Both of these teams are legit national title contenders this season. Alabama has been rolling behind the play of quarterback Jalen Milroe who is probably the best dual threat quarterback in the country, equally as good at running the ball as he is throwing the deep ball he is a nightmare for opposing defenses. Georgia’s line of scrimmage really struggled against Kentucky, both in pass protection and run blocking and it disrupted their entire offense as Georgia only scored 13 points against the Wildcats. I believe Alabama can disrupt Georgia’s offense in a similar fashion and I expect Alabama to win at home. Alabama 27 Georgia 20
Cory: While there aren’t many big games this week, there is one game that every fan in the country will be watching and that’s Georgia versus Alabama. The No. 2 and No. 4 teams in the nation meet in Tuscaloosa with the winner of this game getting the inside track to a spot in the SEC Championship game. For Georgia to win they need to get some solid production out of their run game. The Bulldogs have just four rushing touchdowns all season, and in their 13-12 win over Kentucky they were outrushed by the Wildcats 170-102. You can’t be one dimensional against Alabama and expect to win. Alabama is coming off an impressive win at Wisconsin. I’ve been harsh on quarterback Jalen Milroe in the past, but credit is due to him now after he accounted for five total touchdowns against the Badgers – three passing, and two rushing. I think Georgia is better than what they showed against Kentucky, but overall I am still concerned about their offense. The X-factor in this game is Milroe because if he’s on like he was against Wisconsin then I think the Crimson Tide will be hard to beat. Alabama 27, Georgia 21
Dave: Georgia 32 Alabama 21
Gregg: I will go out on a limb and say, at this point in the season, these are the two most overrated teams in the country. With that said, all the attention will be on this game this weekend. But the slim win Georgia had over Kentucky should have dropped them in the polls but it did not. Alabama needs to prove they can do it with a different head coach. But win or lose, both teams will still be in the SEC hunt and the playoff hunt. Will go with Coach Deboer getting the first signature win in Tuscaloosa. Alabama 28 Georgia 27
Joe-S-U: Alabama
John: If Ohio State/Michigan State ends up being a blow out, I would expect a lot of TV’s will be migrating over to this one. Georgia destroyed what is supposed to be a pretty good Clemson team in week 1, but looked very average in escaping Lexington in their last game. “Bama has looked impressive rolling up big wins in each of its first three, including blowing out Wisconsin in Madison – not an easy thing to do. Both teams are coming off of a bye week, so no advantage to either team here. Game is basically a pick-em, with ‘Bama being a 1 point favorite at home. I think home filed make the difference. Alabama 24 Georgia 20
Josh: Were the Bulldogs overlooking Kentucky when they were focus on the bye week leading up to this game? This should be a interesting match up between two of the more talented teams in the country. I think this will be a good test for Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, who is going to be compared to his predecessor Nick Saban, but DeBoer has been known to have good offense schematics, and with the exception of a few quarters of play against USF, the Tide have been solid overall. Georgia dominated Clemson to start the year, but then had a come to earth moment with Kentucky two weeks ago. I think Kirby likes to play aggressive in these types of games, and the SEC championship is fresh in his mind, which prevented his team from a chance to 3-peat as National Champions. I think the Bulldogs win a close one on the road, and retake the number 1 spot for now. Georgia 28 – Alabama 24.
Steven: After getting to the top of the mountain the past two years, it is not surprising that Georgia might be susceptible to return to earth. Kirby Smart’s team is very lucky to have made it out of Lexington unbeaten two weeks ago, while the Tide has a 42-10 beatdown of Wisconsin to build upon. Now with both teams coming off an idle week, there’s gonna be a rumble in Bryant-Denny stadium Saturday night, but it probably won’t be as close as the last time these two teams met. Georgia ended 2023 at 5th in scoring. Three games into 2024, and the Dawgs sit 58th while Alabama is 6th. Georgia’s D is still stout, so this should be a grinder. ‘Bama wins again, by a bigger margin than in December. Tide Rolls 28-20.
Trout: I can see this game being very close. The Bulldogs will still win it, but I can see the Crimson Tide putting up a fight. After their dismantling of Clemson, some people were ready to hand them the championship trophy. But as we saw a few weeks later in their game against Kentucky, this team is far from perfect. They still won that game, but it was close to going the Wildcats’ way. With Alabama, I just don’t know how good they are. They haven’t been fully tested. Their best win is Wisconsin, but the Badgers haven’t been great in a while. Georgia will most likely pull off another close victory. I can see this game coming down to the very end. Potentially win a last second field goal. In the end, the Bulldogs survive and remain undefeated. (Georgia, 27-24)
Final Score: Alabama 41 Georgia 34
(15)Louisville @ (16)Notre Dame
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): Louisville stuns the Irish at home 35-24.
Andy: Last year this game was a thorne in Notre Dame’s side as Louisville proved to be a tough match for them with an explosive offense. Notre Dame’s offense has been boom or bust this season with transfer quarterback Riley Leonard. Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country and they should be able to slow down most offenses in the country. If the Irish can limit some of those big plays and long drives that Louisville was able to get against them last year they should win assuming Riley Leonard plays well. This should be a good game, expect it to be close. Notre Dame 27 Louisville 24
Cory: Since losing to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has rebounded well with a big win over Purdue, and a solid win over Miami (OH). The Fighting Irish controlled both of those through terrific defensive performances in which they forced four interceptions and three fumbles. They were also terrific on third down, holding Miami to just 2 of 12, and Purdue to just 1 of 12. They will need that kind of defense this week against a Louisville team that’s been flying high offensively. Sixth-year senior quarterback Tyler Shough, formerly of Oregon and Texas Tech, leads the Cardinals offense and he’s off to a career best start as he’s completing almost 70 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Not to be outdone, the Louisville run game has been explosive and scored eight touchdowns, as well. I am going with Louisville in this one. Irish quarterback Riley Leonard has been a dud so far with just one touchdown pass on this season. Louisville will just outpace Notre Dame in this one. Louisville 31, Notre Dame 23
Dave: Notre Dame 32 Louisville 14
Gregg: Louisville is unbeaten but other than Georgia Tech, their opponents have not been that strong. Notre Dame needs to win out to even hope to have a chance to make the playoffs so they will be playing with more urgency. Go Coach Freeman! Notre Dame 24 Louisville 17
Joe-S-U: Notre Dame
John: This is sorta/kinda an ACC game, what with the Irish playing a mostly ACC schedule but still being independent in football. With the new playoff reality of only conference champs getting a first-round bye, it will be interesting to see how long that continues. After the bad loss to N. Illinois, ND has no more margin for error if they want to make the playoffs this year. I think the NIU loss was a case of the Irish 1) having a letdown after the big win the week before over Texas A & M and 2) looking past a supposedly inferior MAC school, but I’m not yet convinced. I think the Irish pull this one out but expect it to be close. Notre Dame 27 Louisville 24
Josh: Will the real Notre Dame please stand up? The loss to NIU for the Irish looks a little worse, and the Cardinals are looking for a chance to pounce. I think the Irish know that they cant lose one more game and are motivated for this game to try and keep their playoff hopes alive, especially if they want to try and host a game. Notre Dame 31 – Louisville 28.
Steven: Has Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman righted the ship? Riley Leonard passing for 154 and a TD against Miami of Ohio doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.It was, though, his first passing touchdown of the season, so I guess that’s nice. However, Leonard’s 143 and 2 rushing touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at.The playbook for Louisville is clear, load the box, rush the QB and dare him to beat you. Odds are he can’t. If Notre Dame loses another game, the boo birds will be out for Freeman’s job. It shows how much hitting on the right QB means to a team. Freeman, though, is a defensive guy at heart, and this defense can win the game for the Irish. Not an upset, but it will feel like one. ND 21-17.
Trout: The Irish should win this, but I see it being very close. On paper Notre Dame should be the better team. This was supposed to be their year to take that next step, and finally warrant the hype they usually get. And then they lost to Northern Illinois. But then the next week they hung 66 on Purdue. It’s hard to really gauge how good this team is. I also think Louisville is a good mid-tier ACC team. They are currently undefeated, but they also haven’t played anyone of note. With their best win being Georgia Tech. Notre Dame should beat this team. The game will be a low scoring affair with the Irish battling to maintain the lead the whole night. But by the time the final whistle blows, Notre Dame stands as the victor. (Notre Dame, 17-14)
Final Score: Notre Dame 31 Louisville 24
(19)Illinois @ (9)Penn State
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): Penn State wins a close one at home over the Illini 28-24.
Andy: A big matchup considering both teams enter conference play undefeated. This is Penn State’s white out game this season which means the environment should be crazy for the Illini to try and compete in. Illinois is a surprise team so far this season going undefeated and beating a ranked Nebraska team last weekend. Head coach Bret Bielema has his team playing classic tough big ten football lead by quarterback Luke Altmyer. I do think this will be a tougher matchup for Penn State than everybody thought it would have been coming into the season, despite that I expect Penn State to win. Penn State 28 Illinois 21
Cory: Last week I said not to underestimate Illinois, and then picked them to lose anyway. Shows what I know. The Illini left Lincoln with an impressive overtime road win over Nebraska and face another tough road test at Penn State this week. The Nittany Lions are undefeated, but they did not play at that well in their first two games before blowing out Kent State last week. The offense does look better, including quarterback Drew Allar, but the confidence that they can win big games is just not there yet. What I do like about Penn State is that they’re using their running backs very well – Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have split the carries almost evenly and have put up 501 combined rushing yards. With my lack of confidence in Penn State, and my newfound confidence in Illinois, I am going with the Illini in this one. Illinois 28, Penn State 24
Dave: Penn State 28 Illinois 18
Gregg: Penn State was expected to be good this season, Illinois not so much. To me, both of these coaches are overrated so I will go with the team with the better players. Penn State takes care of business in the ‘White Out’. Penn State 31 Illinois 21
Joe-S-U: Illinois
John: Is Illinois really any good? I guess we’ll find out Saturday in Happy Valley. The Nebraska win in OT on the road was nice, but that wasn’t Tom Osborne’s Big Red from the 80’s. Upset the Lion’s on the road and I’ll believe the Illini are for real. Until then, I’m not sold. Penn State 34 Illinois 17
Josh: Penn State picked this game as their White Out game thinking it would be an easier test, but Illinois has shown so far they are a formidable team, and already has two wins against ranked teams at the time of the game. Penn State seemed to have found a rhythm last week against Kent State, and Drew Alar is showing a little more versatility in getting involved in the run game. How long ago was it that these two teams had the 7 overtime game? I dont think that replicates, but I actually think Illinois has a good chance to pull the upset. Illinois 24 – Penn State 21.
Steven: No, I didn’t have Illinois beating Nebraska. It was a tremendous coaching job by Bret Bielema. The more seasoned QB Luke Altmyer led the way to eke out the win. Can the Illini use that as a springboard for an upset under the lights in Happy Valley? Altmyer may be able to out duel Penn State’s Drew Allar, but the Nittany Lion defense is what could be the deciding factor. Penn State is giving up only 84 yards per game on the ground which is less than half of what the Illini averages. That run defense will put a lot of pressure on Altmyer to carry the load. Look for a valiant effort, but it will take some turnovers and ball control from Illinois to beat Penn State on the road. PSU smothers the Illini 30-15.
Trout: The Nittany Lions win this game, but I can see Illinois keeping it close for a while. The Illini have been a surprisingly good team in this early season. They are definitely not going to compete for a playoff spot, but they’ve looked solid in their 3 games. They should be able to at least initially keep Penn State on their toes. Not to mention, Penn State has had some shaky play from time to time. They are clearly better than Illinois, but they have a history of making mistakes. Although the game may be tight at first, I think the Nittany Lions’ advanced talent, and the pressure from the white out crowd will begin to be too much for the Illini. Penn State should be able to pull away and win by a few scores. The Nittany Lions use their better talent and the home field advantage and hand Illinois their first loss of the season. (Penn State, 28-10)