Week 13 Predictions – 2024
Last Week: Ohio State had no issue with Northwestern, taking care of the Wildcats 31-7 in Wrigley Field. The only issue with the game was the poor camera angles during the FOX broadcast. The Buckeyes stay on track for a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game. Keeping up with the success of the scarlet and gray, five individuals were 4-1 with our staff picks last week, and the standings ended once again with Steven and Coach Rick tied for the lead, and half of the group is within three games of that lead. Should be fun these last three weeks.
This Week’s Games: Ohio State finds themselves in their third top 5 game of the season. Hey SEC fans, you have anyone in your conference that can say that? Indiana has been one of the biggest stories of the 2024 season, but do they have what it takes to knock off the Buckeyes? …. Mississippi is traveling to Gainsville to take on the Gators, but for a change, it is the Rebels that are the favorite. Can Florida summon football ghosts of Christmas past and knock Ole Miss out of the playoff and SEC race? …. Army and Notre Dame will scare off in their annual match-up, but there is a lot more riding on this game than there usually is, which team with come out on top? …. BYU was at home last week and suffered their first loss of the year. Can they get back on track on the road this week against the surging Sun Devils in Tempe? …. Colorado continues to be a player in the Big 12 and with the upsets the past few weeks, now find themselves in the driver’s seat to the conference title game. Can Kansas play spolier to the Buffs?
Buckeye Greats: As in the past, we will continue to include former Buckeye players in our prediction fun and we are thrilled to have Vaughn Broadnax back with us as a regular participant for the tenth straight year.
Here we go with our Week 13 Picks – Good Luck to All – Gregg
(5)Indiana @ (2)Ohio State
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): Ohio State over Indiana 38-31
Andy: This is going to be a massive game for both teams as the winner of this game likely goes to the Big Ten Championship to play Oregon. Indiana has been an absolutely impressive team. Curt Cignetti brought in some transfers in his first year that have made a big impact, on top of that IU is simply a very well coached team that is playing with a ton of energy. Indiana has been excellent on offense rushing the football and throwing it, in particular they have a strength that is Ohio State’s weakness, which is their ability on offense to throw back shoulder passes to their receivers. OSU’s corners have struggled a lot with that the past few games. I think Ohio State will focus on shutting down the run and pressuring Rourke, the IU quarterback. Ohio State has to find ways on defense to help out their corners and on offense they have to run the football well. If they can do those two things they will win this game. Ohio State 31 Indiana 23
Cory: Well, this is a tricky one to pick. I’m an Ohio State fan, but an Indiana graduate. The Hoosiers have had unprecedented success this season under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, as they are 10-0 and one of four remaining undefeated teams. The schedule so far has not been difficult – Indiana’s best wins have come over Nebraska, Michigan, Washington, and Michigan State. Yet, the metrics love the Hoosiers and they pass the eye test, as well. Offensively, it all starts with quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Rourke, a transfer from Ohio University, has put himself in the Heisman consideration with 2,410 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. The Hoosiers have a good offensive line and some underrated backs and receivers, but Rourke is what makes it all go. He reminds me a lot of Dylan Gabriel in the sense that both players can pick you apart if you let them sit back and get comfortable. Ohio State has to put pressure on Rourke early and often, and so far the Buckeyes have not been very effective on blitzes. Defensively, Indiana is much improved over last year but they are still vulnerable to the run. If I’m Ryan Day I would run TreVeyeon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins early and often and mix in some RPO with Will Howard to keep them honest. I expect the Buckeyes to get the job done, but that the game will be closer than many expect. Ohio State 35, Indiana 28
Dave: Ohio State 32 Indiana 24
Gregg: This is the first time the game between Ohio State and Indiana has meant so much for both teams. The winner will likely go to Indy to face Oregon in the Big Ten title game. The loser will probably still get a home game in the first round of the playoffs but give the talking heads two weeks to hype up the SEC, who knows what will happen. Amazing for the Hoosiers since they were so poorly rated in pre-season. Phil Steele actually had them coming in 12th in the conference. Indiana has actually not beaten the Buckeyes since John Cooper took his first OSU squad to Bloomington in 1988. Back then, Indiana had an elite running back and stable full of 5th year seniors. But that is the past and this year Indiana is beating up inferior opponents, but they are beating them up really bad. To add an extra element to the mix, Ohio State will be coming into the game with a very green offensive line. Will be interesting to see how the game unfolds but both teams know what is at stake, I only hope that if the Buckeyes do get a comfortable lead, they continue to bring it and run up the score. Sadly, I suspect the way the game will go, Columbus will be satisfied with a win no matter how it looks. The need to use Will Howard and the full complement of receiving targets to open up the Hoosier defense, then establish the run, including getting some yards with Howard. I suspect the defense will step up and it will be considered a solid win for the Buckeyes. Ohio State 34 Indiana 20
Joe-S-U: OSU
John: This game became a little harder to pick, after the injury to starting center Seth McClaughlin. The O-Line was starting to gel after the loss of LT Josh Simmons. Now, the line needs to bounce back after losing a midseason All-American. The good news, if you are a Buckeye fan, is that this team should simply be able to out-talent the 10-0 Hoosiers. Going 10-0 with a MAC QB and a bunch of James Madison players is a nice story, but the reality is, IU’s schedule to date has been hot garbage. Their non-conference slate was FIU, W. Illinois and Charlotte – none of which will ever be confused with national title contenders. Of their Big Ten games, only one team they have played to date has a winning record – Washington at 6-5. Michigan and Nebraska are .500 at 5-5 and everyone else has a losing record. If OSU keeps their heads about them and just plays their game, they should not only win but cover the 13.5 point spread. Ohio State 31 Indiana 10
Josh: With the news of Seth McLaughlin getting hurt, that puts a little bit of a damper on the Ohio State offense. This will be a match up of two of the best defenses and offenses in the country, and each team will try to capitalize on their strengths. For Indiana, stretching the field and trying to attack the Ohio State secondary will be be their key to sustaining drives and keeping the ball away from Ohio State as much as possible. They are entering this game with a lot of confidence, and the bye week helped them with extra time to scheme and recover. For Ohio State, not turning the ball over will be the key, and making sure they don’t lose possessions. If they play a B+ game, they should still win. I think with losing McLaughlin, and knowing that is at stake, the Buckeyes have the favorable intangibles, and will defeat the Hoosiers, leading up to a must win game against That Team Up North for a chance at the Big Ten Championship game for the 4th year in a row. Ohio State 35 – Indiana 13
Steven: If you like stats like I do, you’d find Indiana and Ohio State are neck and neck in a lot of categories. From a macro level, you will find Ohio State and IU are 15th and 17th respectively in total offense, and second and third in total defense. How the two teams came to those numbers is completely different. Ohio State’s strength of schedule is 28th. Indiana’s is 106th. Of course, you can only play the teams on your schedule, and the Hoosiers have taken care of their schedule and blown out the teams they should have blown out. The only team the Hoosiers haven’t beaten by two touchdowns or more this season is Michigan. Despite the Wolverines offensive woes, I think we’re certain that their defense is still halfway decent (56th in scoring, and 38th in total defense). Michigan held the Hoosiers to 40 yards of rushing which is more than 100 yards less than their game average. OSU should be able to duplicate that. Indiana will be forced to throw, which will put pressure on our corners. Expect a blown coverage or two. Indiana is good enough that they can score on Ohio State. Are their receivers as good as Oregon’s Tez Johnson, who torched Denzel Burke in Autzen Stadium? We’ll see. What Indiana does not have is a QB who is a consistent running threat such as Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel. Without that added threat dimension, look for Ohio State’s defensive front to create havoc for Hoosier QB Kurtis Rourke. Lastly, Indiana is tops in the nation at stopping the run. Here is where statistics lie. Digging deeper we find that Indiana has only played one program with a rushing offense better than 92nd out of 130, and that was Michigan at 73rd. Wow, I thought Michigan was better than that. They can’t pass and are only middle of the pack rushing the ball? Ick. Let’s talk more about that next week. It still adds up to an interesting matchup, but the Bucks should be able to dominate the lines of scrimmage and time of possession. As the hats say, “Run the damn ball”. If they follow that mantra, OSU should run the Hoosiers out of the ‘Shoe 38-17.
Trout: Ohio State will win the game, but I do see the Hoosiers putting up a fight. Ohio State is clearly the better team, but Indiana is vastly improved. They have been able to destroy most of their opponents. Granted, they haven’t played a team above .500. If nothing else, they are well coached, and they know how to execute. I can see the game being pretty close in the first half. Especially since the Buckeyes are notorious for starting slow. However, in the second half, Ohio State will start to pull away. Talent usually wins, and Ohio State is more talented. The Hoosiers put up a good showing against the Buckeyes, but fall short. The Buckeyes win and move on to the showdown against the team up north next week. (Ohio State, 35-21)
Final Score: Ohio State 38 Indiana 15
(9)Mississippi @ Florida
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): Ole Miss rips Florida 31-10
Andy: This game suddenly got much more interesting after Florida quarterback DJ Lagway returned earlier than anticipated from a leg injury only to beat LSU last week. Ole Miss is still one of the best teams in the country, but going into the Swamp and playing Florida when they have momentum is tough. The keys to victory for Ole Miss are to run the football well and pressure DJ Lagway. Ole Miss is a better team and Jaxson Dart is a big headache for opposing defense with his ability to run the football. I like Ole Miss in this game, but I think it will be close. Ole Miss 27 Florida 24
Cory: Florida coach Billy Napier was a dead man walking in August. Now? It looks like he could keep his job by making it to a bowl game. The Gators earned their fifth win of the season last week with an upset over LSU, and have a chance to get that important sixth win this week against a red hot Ole Miss team. The Rebels had a bye last week, but previously upset Georgia in dominating fashion. We know Ole Miss is going to throw the ball a lot – it’s pretty much their entire offense. This is a problem for Florida, which has struggled to defend the pass. Cam Ward, Quinn Ewers, and Carson Beck each went over 300 passing yards in wins over Florida this year. Those three quarterbacks also combined four nine passing touchdowns and five interceptions in those wins. Florida has a lot of confidence now, and Ole Miss tends to struggle after a big win, but I still see the Rebels getting a win here. Ole Miss 38, Florida 24
Dave: Ole Miss 32 Florida 14
Gregg: Mississippi is a much better team than Florida this year. Rebels head to Gainsville and take care of business. Mississippi 40 Florida 24
Joe-S-U: Ole Miss
John: We’ve reached the point of the season where we get to play: Who’s seat is red hot? This week’s contestant: Billy Napier – Come on Down! With the Gator’s sitting at 5-5 and staring 5-6 in the face this week, Napier’s seat has got to be toasty. 6-6 should be a given, as their last game is against a Florida State team that may be the all-time champ at underachieving. After starting the season ranked #10, the ‘Noles are looking 1-11 square in the face. As for this week, so long as Mississippi’s plane manages not lo land in the Okefenokee, the Rebels should win this one easily. ‘Ole Miss 35 Florida 13
Josh: Florida 35 – Ole Miss 31
Steven: Let’s face it, Florida is poo. They have lost to every decent team on their schedule. They are facing the second ranked pass offense in the nation while fielding the 92nd ranked pass defense. This ends poorly for the Gators. Look for Ole Miss QB Jaxon Dart to have a career day, and keep the Rebels in the playoff picture. Ole Miss 41-14.
Trout: The Rebels are a weird team. They have talent, but they have some issues as well. Ole Miss has had some great wins, especially against Georgia, but they also have two glaring losses to Kentucky and a four loss LSU team. I just don’t see them going far in the playoffs. Having said that, they should till beat Florida. The Gators are bad. They had a good showing against Georgia, but they still lost that game, and are still a .500 football team. I can see the game being close, but the rebels pull away late into the game. The Rebels win a closer than predicted game, and hand the Gator’s their six loss of the season. (Ole Miss, 24-18)
Final Score: Florida 24 Mississippi 17
(19)Army @ (6)Notre Dame
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): Notre Dame edges Army 28-21
Andy: This game is a good one this year, Army is undefeated and Notre Dame has only one loss from their second game of the season. Even though Army has not really played any good teams this season they have blown out every team they’ve played with the exception of their last two games. Notre Dame is playing great defense, their running the ball pretty well and quarterback Riley Leonard is playing his best football of his career the past few games for the Irish. I think Notre Dame has a ton of momentum going into this game and with it being at home I expect a big win for the Irish. Notre Dame 34 Army 17
Cory: This is an interesting matchup of two ranked teams. Army enters the game undefeated and still very much alive in the hunt for a playoff spot. Notre Dame is also in the playoff hunt, though a loss here could take them out of it. Though Army is undefeated, they have played an incredibly easy schedule so far. The Black Knights strength of schedule currently ranks 124th out of 134. Army gets it done on the ground. The Black Knights have combined for 3,014 rushing yards this season. Their quarterback, Bryson Daily, has over 1,000 of those, which is 400 more yards than he has passing. For Notre Dame, defense is the name of the game. The Fighting Irish have given up an average of just 9.8 points per game since their loss to Northern Illinois. Though I like Army, this is by far the toughest test this season and with how much they rely on the run I think they will struggle to generate consistent offense. Expect an ugly, low-scoring game. Notre Dame 20, Army 14
Dave: Notre Dame 35 Army 21
Gregg: Notre Dame is coming on strong at the right time of the season. Army is a good team for their conference but the Irish are a good National team. I think with the right pairing, Notre Dame can win a first round game in the playoffs and maybe get Freeman a contract extension. It worked in Bloomington. Notre Dame 35 Army 20
Joe-S-U: Notre Dame
John: So who had Army being 9-0 and ranked in the top 20 on their 2024 CFB Bingo Card? Anyone? One of the true bright spots of this CFB season has been the play of both Army (9-0) and Navy (7-3). This one is being played in Yankee Stadium, not South Bend, so that might help the Black Knights keep it close for a while, but ND should be able to out talent Army and pull away in the second half for an easy win. That said, recent history has shown that one shouldn’t underestimate a Marcus Freemen coached teams ability to play down to (or even be beneath) their opponents level – <cough> Northen Illinois <cough>. I’ll be pulling for Army, but think ND wins. Notre Dame 31 Army 14
Josh: Notre Dame 28 – Army 14
Steven: This matchup harkens back to 1958 which is the last time both teams were ranked. So, this will be a huge game for nostalgia at least. Football fans understand playing the service academies is both a tremendous honor, and many times a complete pain, as their style of offense is run heavy, relying on a lot of misdirection. In fact, Army is so run heavy, they are dead last in the nation in passing yardage per game. In Notre Dame’s favor, they met Navy on October 26th, and the Midshipmen run a similar run-heavy offense. That matchup, against a previously undefeated Navy squad, ended in a 51-14 win for the Irish. Expect more of the same on Saturday. Domers 38-13.
Trout: The Irish should win this game, but I can see the Black Knights keeping it close. Similarly to Indiana, Army seems to have talent, but they also haven’t played anyone of note. It is hard to gauge how good they actually are. Notre Dame is also a little dubious. The team rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois, however, they haven’t played a lot of marquee teams. Their best wins are a four loss Louisville team, and Navy. I think Notre Dame is the better team, but it’s close. The game should be neck and neck all the way until the final minutes of the fourth quarter, and then the Irish get the go-ahead score. Notre Dame wins and gets one game closer to getting to the playoff. (Notre Dame, 24-21)
Final Score: Notre Dame 49 Army 14
(14)BYU @ (21)Arizona State
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): BYU falls to the Sun Devils 34-28
Andy: The rubber has finally met the road for BYU as they experienced their first loss of the season this past weekend at the hands of Kansas. Arizona State has beaten Kansas State, Oklahoma State and UCF the past three weeks, while BYU has struggled against their past two opponents, nearly losing to Utah in their rivalry game and then losing to Kansas. The Sun Devils are really good on offense at running the football with running back Cam Skattebo (11 rushing TDs and 1,000 yards), this game is at home and BYU’s defense in five games this season have given up 3 scores or more to less offenses. With this game being at home for Arizona State I like them in this game. Arizona State 31 BYU 23
Cory: One of the last few unbeatens fell last week when BYU was upset by Kansas. BYU struggled to generate much offense, but a muffed punt set up the game-winning score for Kansas. Well, BYU is on upset watch again this week. Arizona State is a surprise team at 8-2, and though the schedule has not been too difficult, the Sun Devils are coming off an upset of Kansas State. The BYU offense is a concern to me. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff was off to a good start this season, but has just one touchdown in his last two games. He also is prone to mistakes – he’s taken 14 sacks this season and thrown eight interceptions. Arizona State’s offense should be able to outpace BYU in this one. Arizona State 28, BYU 24
Dave: BYU 28 Arizona State 21
Gregg: BYU took their first loss last week at home. Can they go on the road to play Arizona State and right the ship? A second loss would surely knock them out of the playoffs. The Big 12 can actually eat itself up enough they as a conference they don’t secure one of the top for seeds in the playoffs. But let’s just take this one week at a time. The Cougars should come out load and strong from the opening kick. Problem is I don’t think they can sustain that and Arizona has been playing well of late. Don’t ask me why but I think the Sun Devils do just enough to win this game and spoil the season of BYU. Arizona State 24 BYU 21
Joe-S-U: Arizona State
John: I’m still having a hard time remembering who is in what conference. So, I guess this is a Big XII game now? OK. I’m not sure of the Big XII tiebreakers, but this one might be a conference championship play-in game. At 8-2, 5-2 in conference, the Sun Devil’s are a game behind BYU and Colorado in the standings. Right now, ASU appears ahead of Iowa State in the Big XII standings, even though both have identical records, so I assume that means the Sun Devils own the tie breaker. BYU is coming off a tough loss to Kanas and now has to go to Tempe. There could be a whole lot of 6-2 teams in the Big XII after Saturday. Arizona State 27 BYU 24
Josh: Arizona State 31 – BYU 24
Steven: This is probably the most evenly matched game of our picks this week. I don’t have a rooting interest in this one, but I think it would be interesting to see the Cougars make the playoff this year. Last week’s loss puts them in jeopardy of falling out, since I think ASU hands them a second loss this week. Look for Sun Devil running back Cam Skattebo to carry the team. Skattebo is a hard-nosed rusher who is currently ranked 9th overall in the nation. Look for the Sun Devils to control this one on the ground and force the Cougars into some untimely turnovers. ASU beats the Cougars,and jumps into Big 12 title contention. Devils 28-10.
Trout: I think I will have to go with the Sun Devils of Arizona State. BYU has just seemed to lose some of their momentum after a nail-biting win against Utah, and their loss to Kansas. And at the same time the Sun Devils are playing some good football. I don’t see them making much noise in the playoff discussion, but they could be a dark horse for the Big 12 Championship. I think the game goes back and forth for a while. But towards the end, the Sun Devils take the lead, and never give it back. BYU loses, thus losing their hope for a playoff spot. (Arizona State, 31-28)
Final Score: Arizona State 28 BYU 23
(16)Colorado(-2.5) @ Kansas
Vaughn Broadnax (OSU-RB 1980-83): Colorado gets by Kansas 35-33
Andy: Colorado has really turned the corner as a program this year under coach Deion Sanders. Since losing 2 games earlier in the season Colorado is now firmly in the driver’s seat to win the Big 12 and potentially earn a playoff spot. Despite Kansas’ big win last week against BYU, they are still a 4 win this season. The Jayhawks have surrendered 3 scores or more in 6 of their games this season, which spells trouble for them as Colorado has scored 30 points or more in all of their games this season except for 2. Despite this game being at home for Kansas I like Colorado in this game. Colorado 38 Kansas 20
Cory: Kansas opened the season 1-5, with that lone win coming over Lindenwood. The Jayhawks have turned things around as they are 3-1 in their last four games, with upsets over Iowa State and BYU, as well as a narrow two-point loss to Kansas State. Four of their losses at the beginning of the season were one-score games so perhaps the Jayhawks are finally on the right side of lady luck. They’ll need that luck to continue this week with a hot Colorado team coming into town. Colorado’s last five wins have been by double-digit margins. Despite how good Colorado has been this season I am still not a believer in the Buffaloes. Their schedule has been easy and their defense still isn’t good. I think Kansas has enough offense to hang with Colorado, and I see the Jayhawks earning another big upset this week. Kansas 35, Colorado 31
Dave: Colorado 32 Kansas 28
Gregg: After the Buffalos lost to Nebraska earlier this season, I announced that Colorado was done, and I was happy about that as I don’t need to really hear any more about the Sanders hype train. But since then, they have only lost one game and are now in position to play in the Big 12 championship game in two weeks. To get there, they will have to go through Kansas, who started the season with high aspirations have fallen to the bottom of the conference. However, in the last two weeks, the Jayhawks have given Iowa State only their second loss and BYU their first loss of the season. Now that they are playing spoiler now, can they knock off Colorado and make it three huge wins in three weeks? Two more wins will make Kansas bowl eligible. I expect a lot scoring in this one and when the final gun sounds, Deion and son sneak out with a narrow victory and a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. Colorado 38 Kansas 31
Joe-S-U: Colorado
John: This is the other big game in the Big XII. Kansas may be 4-6, but don’t sleep on the Jayhawks. They are 3-1 in their last four, the loss is a 2 point loss at then #16 Kansas State (rivalry game), and they have beaten #17 Iowa State and #6 (and formerly unbeaten) BYU the last two weeks. Colorado is kind of the Indiana of the Big XII. They are winning games, but really haven’t played many good teams. Only two of their wins are against teams currently with a winning record, and both of those schools are 6-4 (Baylor and Texas Tech). Yes, N. Dakota State is 10-1, but they are an FCS school. For these reasons, I like Kansas for the upset. Kansas 38 Colorado 34
Josh: Kansas 34 – Colorado 31
Steven: Well, I and a few others missed last week calling the Jayhawks upset over BYU. Will I make the same mistake again picking against Kansas this week… yes, yes I will. Despite not being the biggest Coach Prime fan, I can’t argue with the product on the field. The talent that coach Sanders has put together is impressive. His son Shadeur Sanders is a legitimate first round NFL prospect, and wideout/DB Travis Hunter should be the Heisman Trophy winner. Kansas will make it a game, especially being at home, but in the end, the overall talent gap favors the Buffs. Colorado 31-17.
Trout: Much like many of these picks this week, this game will be close, at least for a while. Colorado should be able to pull out the victory in Kansas, but it won’t be easy. The Jayhawks are a dangerous team. They are playing much better football than what their record indicates. They have just been on the losing end of one score games for much of the season. This team will make Coach Prime work for this victory. However, Sanders and Hunter are two of the best players in the country, and I don’t think Kansas will be able to keep up with them for all four quarters. The Buffaloes should be able to gradually pull away with the play from those two. Colorado wins a hard-fought battle, which puts them in prime position for a chance at the conference title as well as a spot in the playoffs. (Colorado, 40-24)